Republican trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee prevailing in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico, who secured the nomination with 52% in the March 3 primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Positioning reflects Texas's Republican lean and historical base rates favoring the GOP in Senate contests, tempered by early general election polls showing near-ties, such as February University of Houston surveys with Talarico trailing Cornyn 43-44% and Paxton 44-46%. Key recent driver: April 17 TPOR poll of likely GOP runoff voters giving AG Ken Paxton a 48-40% edge over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May 26 runoff, amid Cornyn's fundraising superiority but Paxton's stronger base among non-college voters—runoff outcome could reshape general election dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTexas Senate Election Winner
Texas Senate Election Winner
$178,118 ปริมาณ
$178,118 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
56%
Democrat
43%
$178,118 ปริมาณ
$178,118 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$94,190 ปริมาณ
56%
Democrat
$83,927 ปริมาณ
43%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee prevailing in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico, who secured the nomination with 52% in the March 3 primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Positioning reflects Texas's Republican lean and historical base rates favoring the GOP in Senate contests, tempered by early general election polls showing near-ties, such as February University of Houston surveys with Talarico trailing Cornyn 43-44% and Paxton 44-46%. Key recent driver: April 17 TPOR poll of likely GOP runoff voters giving AG Ken Paxton a 48-40% edge over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May 26 runoff, amid Cornyn's fundraising superiority but Paxton's stronger base among non-college voters—runoff outcome could reshape general election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$178,118วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee prevailing in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico, who secured the nomination with 52% in the March 3 primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Positioning reflects Texas's Republican lean and historical base rates favoring the GOP in Senate contests, tempered by early general election polls showing near-ties, such as February University of Houston surveys with Talarico trailing Cornyn 43-44% and Paxton 44-46%. Key recent driver: April 17 TPOR poll of likely GOP runoff voters giving AG Ken Paxton a 48-40% edge over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May 26 runoff, amid Cornyn's fundraising superiority but Paxton's stronger base among non-college voters—runoff outcome could reshape general election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$178,118วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee prevailing in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico, who secured the nomination with 52% in the March 3 primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Positioning reflects Texas's Republican lean and historical base rates favoring the GOP in Senate contests, tempered by early general election polls showing near-ties, such as February University of Houston surveys with Talarico trailing Cornyn 43-44% and Paxton 44-46%. Key recent driver: April 17 TPOR poll of likely GOP runoff voters giving AG Ken Paxton a 48-40% edge over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May 26 runoff, amid Cornyn's fundraising superiority but Paxton's stronger base among non-college voters—runoff outcome could reshape general election dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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