Jenny Costa Honeycutt holds a clear edge in the South Carolina 1st Congressional District race, an open seat previously held by Republican Nancy Mace. The district’s Republican tilt, reinforced by redistricting and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around her 69.5% implied probability. Honeycutt, a Charleston County councilwoman and local attorney, secured the Republican nomination in a June runoff by emphasizing Lowcountry roots and infrastructure priorities. Retired Navy Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore captured the Democratic nomination with a strong fundraising profile and military record, yet faces headwinds in a seat where independents and suburban voters have favored Republicans. A recent October debate and outside spending by GOP-aligned groups have kept the contest in focus ahead of early voting, though the underlying partisan composition continues to favor the Republican nominee.