Polymarket traders price a 93.8% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting robust consensus forecasts from institutions like Deloitte, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs clustering around 2.2%, backed by resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent BEA revisions confirmed Q4 2025 growth at 0.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model holds Q1 2026 at 1.2% as of April 21, signaling continued expansion. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has compressed recession odds to ~25% on parallel markets. Challenges include downside risks from April's consumer confidence drop to -38 or geopolitical escalations, with the Q1 advance GDP release due April 30 as a key near-term catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$21,572 ปริมาณ
$21,572 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$21,572 ปริมาณ
$21,572 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 93.8% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting robust consensus forecasts from institutions like Deloitte, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs clustering around 2.2%, backed by resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent BEA revisions confirmed Q4 2025 growth at 0.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model holds Q1 2026 at 1.2% as of April 21, signaling continued expansion. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has compressed recession odds to ~25% on parallel markets. Challenges include downside risks from April's consumer confidence drop to -38 or geopolitical escalations, with the Q1 advance GDP release due April 30 as a key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,572วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 93.8% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting robust consensus forecasts from institutions like Deloitte, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs clustering around 2.2%, backed by resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent BEA revisions confirmed Q4 2025 growth at 0.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model holds Q1 2026 at 1.2% as of April 21, signaling continued expansion. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has compressed recession odds to ~25% on parallel markets. Challenges include downside risks from April's consumer confidence drop to -38 or geopolitical escalations, with the Q1 advance GDP release due April 30 as a key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,572วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 93.8% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting robust consensus forecasts from institutions like Deloitte, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs clustering around 2.2%, backed by resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent BEA revisions confirmed Q4 2025 growth at 0.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model holds Q1 2026 at 1.2% as of April 21, signaling continued expansion. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has compressed recession odds to ~25% on parallel markets. Challenges include downside risks from April's consumer confidence drop to -38 or geopolitical escalations, with the Q1 advance GDP release due April 30 as a key near-term catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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