Trader consensus implies an 81.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, which occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and the absence of precursory signals in current USGS seismic data. The largest recent events, a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, fall far short of megaquake thresholds and show no escalation patterns. High-risk zones like the Cascadia subduction zone and Japan's Nankai Trough carry elevated 30-year probabilities (10–15% and 60–90%, respectively) but lack short-term indicators per official monitoring. Continuous USGS updates and model ensembles will refine risks through resolution, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$49,186 ปริมาณ
$49,186 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
$49,186 ปริมาณ
$49,186 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies an 81.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, which occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and the absence of precursory signals in current USGS seismic data. The largest recent events, a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, fall far short of megaquake thresholds and show no escalation patterns. High-risk zones like the Cascadia subduction zone and Japan's Nankai Trough carry elevated 30-year probabilities (10–15% and 60–90%, respectively) but lack short-term indicators per official monitoring. Continuous USGS updates and model ensembles will refine risks through resolution, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$49,186วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies an 81.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, which occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and the absence of precursory signals in current USGS seismic data. The largest recent events, a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, fall far short of megaquake thresholds and show no escalation patterns. High-risk zones like the Cascadia subduction zone and Japan's Nankai Trough carry elevated 30-year probabilities (10–15% and 60–90%, respectively) but lack short-term indicators per official monitoring. Continuous USGS updates and model ensembles will refine risks through resolution, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$49,186วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 81.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, which occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and the absence of precursory signals in current USGS seismic data. The largest recent events, a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, fall far short of megaquake thresholds and show no escalation patterns. High-risk zones like the Cascadia subduction zone and Japan's Nankai Trough carry elevated 30-year probabilities (10–15% and 60–90%, respectively) but lack short-term indicators per official monitoring. Continuous USGS updates and model ensembles will refine risks through resolution, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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