USGS monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Japan and Indonesia in April, bolstering the 86.5% market-implied probability of "No" megaquake by June 30. Trader consensus reflects the rarity of such events—averaging about one M8+ annually globally—amid normal seismic baselines and no anomalous precursors on major subduction zones. Japan's April 20 M7.4 off Miyako prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term Nankai Trough risk to roughly 1% from 0.1%, but subsequent quiet has tempered optimism for Yes. Ongoing USGS feeds and model consensus will drive further shifts as the deadline nears.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$64,962 ปริมาณ
$64,962 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
$64,962 ปริมาณ
$64,962 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Japan and Indonesia in April, bolstering the 86.5% market-implied probability of "No" megaquake by June 30. Trader consensus reflects the rarity of such events—averaging about one M8+ annually globally—amid normal seismic baselines and no anomalous precursors on major subduction zones. Japan's April 20 M7.4 off Miyako prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term Nankai Trough risk to roughly 1% from 0.1%, but subsequent quiet has tempered optimism for Yes. Ongoing USGS feeds and model consensus will drive further shifts as the deadline nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$64,962วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Japan and Indonesia in April, bolstering the 86.5% market-implied probability of "No" megaquake by June 30. Trader consensus reflects the rarity of such events—averaging about one M8+ annually globally—amid normal seismic baselines and no anomalous precursors on major subduction zones. Japan's April 20 M7.4 off Miyako prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term Nankai Trough risk to roughly 1% from 0.1%, but subsequent quiet has tempered optimism for Yes. Ongoing USGS feeds and model consensus will drive further shifts as the deadline nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$64,962วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Japan and Indonesia in April, bolstering the 86.5% market-implied probability of "No" megaquake by June 30. Trader consensus reflects the rarity of such events—averaging about one M8+ annually globally—amid normal seismic baselines and no anomalous precursors on major subduction zones. Japan's April 20 M7.4 off Miyako prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term Nankai Trough risk to roughly 1% from 0.1%, but subsequent quiet has tempered optimism for Yes. Ongoing USGS feeds and model consensus will drive further shifts as the deadline nears.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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