Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects deep skepticism at an 83.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the high bar for all three conditions by year-end: Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, fathering another child, and SpaceX achieving 9+ Starship launches reaching space. Musk's net worth hovers around $800 billion per recent Forbes and Bloomberg estimates, up $16 billion amid SpaceX IPO rumors, but requires explosive growth via Tesla robotaxi scaling or xAI breakthroughs to hit $1 trillion. No new baby announcements have emerged in 2026 amid ongoing custody battles, while Starship's early-year flight cadence lags, with just a handful of successes demanding an aggressive ramp-up. Key catalysts ahead include mid-year Starship tests and potential SpaceX public listing, though historical delays temper optimism for the full parlay.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects deep skepticism at an 83.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the high bar for all three conditions by year-end: Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, fathering another child, and SpaceX achieving 9+ Starship launches reaching space. Musk's net worth hovers around $800 billion per recent Forbes and Bloomberg estimates, up $16 billion amid SpaceX IPO rumors, but requires explosive growth via Tesla robotaxi scaling or xAI breakthroughs to hit $1 trillion. No new baby announcements have emerged in 2026 amid ongoing custody battles, while Starship's early-year flight cadence lags, with just a handful of successes demanding an aggressive ramp-up. Key catalysts ahead include mid-year Starship tests and potential SpaceX public listing, though historical delays temper optimism for the full parlay.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,514วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects deep skepticism at an 83.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the high bar for all three conditions by year-end: Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, fathering another child, and SpaceX achieving 9+ Starship launches reaching space. Musk's net worth hovers around $800 billion per recent Forbes and Bloomberg estimates, up $16 billion amid SpaceX IPO rumors, but requires explosive growth via Tesla robotaxi scaling or xAI breakthroughs to hit $1 trillion. No new baby announcements have emerged in 2026 amid ongoing custody battles, while Starship's early-year flight cadence lags, with just a handful of successes demanding an aggressive ramp-up. Key catalysts ahead include mid-year Starship tests and potential SpaceX public listing, though historical delays temper optimism for the full parlay.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,514วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects deep skepticism at an 83.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the high bar for all three conditions by year-end: Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, fathering another child, and SpaceX achieving 9+ Starship launches reaching space. Musk's net worth hovers around $800 billion per recent Forbes and Bloomberg estimates, up $16 billion amid SpaceX IPO rumors, but requires explosive growth via Tesla robotaxi scaling or xAI breakthroughs to hit $1 trillion. No new baby announcements have emerged in 2026 amid ongoing custody battles, while Starship's early-year flight cadence lags, with just a handful of successes demanding an aggressive ramp-up. Key catalysts ahead include mid-year Starship tests and potential SpaceX public listing, though historical delays temper optimism for the full parlay.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย