xAI's aggressive scaling roadmap has shaped trader views on the "Grok 4.4 released by...?" market, with the 1-trillion-parameter model originally targeted for early May 2026 after Elon Musk's late-April announcement citing training data through early April. Recent reports confirm delays beyond that window, including a mid-May note that the planned 1T release slipped while a 1.5T variant aligned with the follow-on Grok 4.5 timeline was prioritized amid Colossus 2 training runs. Official xAI updates through mid-June reference Grok 4.1, 4.3, and coding builds but omit any 4.4 availability, leaving the model unreleased as of June 14. Traders are monitoring xAI's API announcements and Musk's X posts for confirmation, as further slips could push resolution past June 30 or July 31 dates amid competition from other frontier labs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$21,746 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
June 15
<1%
June 30
7%
July 31
70%
$21,746 ปริมาณ
June 15
$6,955 ปริมาณ
<1%
June 30
$12,727 ปริมาณ
7%
July 31
$737 ปริมาณ
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive scaling roadmap has shaped trader views on the "Grok 4.4 released by...?" market, with the 1-trillion-parameter model originally targeted for early May 2026 after Elon Musk's late-April announcement citing training data through early April. Recent reports confirm delays beyond that window, including a mid-May note that the planned 1T release slipped while a 1.5T variant aligned with the follow-on Grok 4.5 timeline was prioritized amid Colossus 2 training runs. Official xAI updates through mid-June reference Grok 4.1, 4.3, and coding builds but omit any 4.4 availability, leaving the model unreleased as of June 14. Traders are monitoring xAI's API announcements and Musk's X posts for confirmation, as further slips could push resolution past June 30 or July 31 dates amid competition from other frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,746วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive scaling roadmap has shaped trader views on the "Grok 4.4 released by...?" market, with the 1-trillion-parameter model originally targeted for early May 2026 after Elon Musk's late-April announcement citing training data through early April. Recent reports confirm delays beyond that window, including a mid-May note that the planned 1T release slipped while a 1.5T variant aligned with the follow-on Grok 4.5 timeline was prioritized amid Colossus 2 training runs. Official xAI updates through mid-June reference Grok 4.1, 4.3, and coding builds but omit any 4.4 availability, leaving the model unreleased as of June 14. Traders are monitoring xAI's API announcements and Musk's X posts for confirmation, as further slips could push resolution past June 30 or July 31 dates amid competition from other frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,746วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's aggressive scaling roadmap has shaped trader views on the "Grok 4.4 released by...?" market, with the 1-trillion-parameter model originally targeted for early May 2026 after Elon Musk's late-April announcement citing training data through early April. Recent reports confirm delays beyond that window, including a mid-May note that the planned 1T release slipped while a 1.5T variant aligned with the follow-on Grok 4.5 timeline was prioritized amid Colossus 2 training runs. Official xAI updates through mid-June reference Grok 4.1, 4.3, and coding builds but omit any 4.4 availability, leaving the model unreleased as of June 14. Traders are monitoring xAI's API announcements and Musk's X posts for confirmation, as further slips could push resolution past June 30 or July 31 dates amid competition from other frontier labs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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