Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has positioned her as the market frontrunner, supported by strong first-quarter fundraising that exceeded Sullivan’s by more than four times and recent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 5–7 points. Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election introduce additional uncertainty that traders factor into the current 59% implied probability for Peltola versus 41.5% for Sullivan. The recent qualification of a second Republican named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has sparked accusations of voter confusion from the incumbent’s campaign, further shaping positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAlaska Senate Election Winner
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$335,738 ปริมาณ
$335,738 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Mary Peltola
59%
Dan Sullivan
42%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$335,738 ปริมาณ
$335,738 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Mary Peltola
$166,116 ปริมาณ
59%
Dan Sullivan
$91,935 ปริมาณ
42%
Dustin Darden
$21,931 ปริมาณ
<1%
Ann Diener
$34,206 ปริมาณ
<1%
Richard Grayson
$21,549 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has positioned her as the market frontrunner, supported by strong first-quarter fundraising that exceeded Sullivan’s by more than four times and recent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 5–7 points. Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election introduce additional uncertainty that traders factor into the current 59% implied probability for Peltola versus 41.5% for Sullivan. The recent qualification of a second Republican named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has sparked accusations of voter confusion from the incumbent’s campaign, further shaping positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$335,738วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has positioned her as the market frontrunner, supported by strong first-quarter fundraising that exceeded Sullivan’s by more than four times and recent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 5–7 points. Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election introduce additional uncertainty that traders factor into the current 59% implied probability for Peltola versus 41.5% for Sullivan. The recent qualification of a second Republican named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has sparked accusations of voter confusion from the incumbent’s campaign, further shaping positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$335,738วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has positioned her as the market frontrunner, supported by strong first-quarter fundraising that exceeded Sullivan’s by more than four times and recent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 5–7 points. Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election introduce additional uncertainty that traders factor into the current 59% implied probability for Peltola versus 41.5% for Sullivan. The recent qualification of a second Republican named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has sparked accusations of voter confusion from the incumbent’s campaign, further shaping positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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