Mary Peltola holds a narrow lead in recent polling averages for the November 3, 2026, Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, reflecting her strong fundraising edge and crossover appeal in a state that leans Republican but features a competitive matchup against incumbent Dan Sullivan. Late October developments, including a New York Times report on efforts tied to Peltola allies to recruit a namesake spoiler candidate and a related DOJ lawsuit seeking to block certification if voter confusion arises, have drawn attention to ballot dynamics but have not shifted the overall polling trend. Minor candidates remain at negligible levels, and forecasts from multiple aggregators place Peltola's win probability between roughly 55 and 70 percent based on current data through late October. Trader consensus on Polymarket appears to price in her modest but consistent edge heading into Election Day.