Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability thanks to unprecedented advance ticket sales—already exceeding $50 million domestically months out—and early tracking that points to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The MCU event film, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, draws on franchise precedent from Endgame’s record debut while benefiting from broad premium-format demand across thousands of screens. In contrast, Dune: Part Three’s strong IMAX 70mm sellouts and $100 million-plus domestic projections reflect its critical pedigree and exclusive premium window, yet fall well short of Doomsday’s scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, hinging on unexpectedly soft word-of-mouth for the Marvel title or an extraordinary critical surge lifting Dune’s overall attendance in a shared holiday frame.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудут ли Dune 3 или Avengers: Doomsday более кассовыми в первые выходные?
Будут ли Dune 3 или Avengers: Doomsday более кассовыми в первые выходные?
Дюна 3
3% вероятность
$53,750 Объем
$53,750 Объем
19 дек. 2026 г.
Дюна 3
3% вероятность
$53,750 Объем
$53,750 Объем
19 дек. 2026 г.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability thanks to unprecedented advance ticket sales—already exceeding $50 million domestically months out—and early tracking that points to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The MCU event film, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, draws on franchise precedent from Endgame’s record debut while benefiting from broad premium-format demand across thousands of screens. In contrast, Dune: Part Three’s strong IMAX 70mm sellouts and $100 million-plus domestic projections reflect its critical pedigree and exclusive premium window, yet fall well short of Doomsday’s scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, hinging on unexpectedly soft word-of-mouth for the Marvel title or an extraordinary critical surge lifting Dune’s overall attendance in a shared holiday frame.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Объем
$53,750Дата окончания
20 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability thanks to unprecedented advance ticket sales—already exceeding $50 million domestically months out—and early tracking that points to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The MCU event film, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, draws on franchise precedent from Endgame’s record debut while benefiting from broad premium-format demand across thousands of screens. In contrast, Dune: Part Three’s strong IMAX 70mm sellouts and $100 million-plus domestic projections reflect its critical pedigree and exclusive premium window, yet fall well short of Doomsday’s scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, hinging on unexpectedly soft word-of-mouth for the Marvel title or an extraordinary critical surge lifting Dune’s overall attendance in a shared holiday frame.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Объем
$53,750Дата окончания
20 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability thanks to unprecedented advance ticket sales—already exceeding $50 million domestically months out—and early tracking that points to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The MCU event film, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, draws on franchise precedent from Endgame’s record debut while benefiting from broad premium-format demand across thousands of screens. In contrast, Dune: Part Three’s strong IMAX 70mm sellouts and $100 million-plus domestic projections reflect its critical pedigree and exclusive premium window, yet fall well short of Doomsday’s scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, hinging on unexpectedly soft word-of-mouth for the Marvel title or an extraordinary critical surge lifting Dune’s overall attendance in a shared holiday frame.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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