Project Hail Mary's commanding 99.5% implied probability stems from its record-shattering $123 million domestic opening last weekend, fueled by Ryan Gosling's star power, glowing reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes), and A CinemaScore audience love for the sci-fi adaptation. Second-weekend forecasts peg it at $55-65 million, dwarfing modest opening projections for rivals like Blumhouse's horror They Will Kill You ($15-20M estimate) and animated Hoppers (under $10M). Historical holds for word-of-mouth hits like Dune 2 bolster trader confidence in a multiplier north of 3x. Realistic upsets hinge on a disastrous 50%+ drop for Hail Mary amid poor weather or competition, or a viral breakout from an opener exceeding $70M—scenarios defying current tracking.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest grossing movie this weekend (March 27)
Highest grossing movie this weekend (March 27)
Project Hail Mary 99.4%
They Will Kill You <1%
Hoppers <1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come <1%
$32,637 Объем
$32,637 Объем
Project Hail Mary
99%
They Will Kill You
<1%
Hoppers
<1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
<1%
Reminders of Him
<1%
Project Hail Mary 99.4%
They Will Kill You <1%
Hoppers <1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come <1%
$32,637 Объем
$32,637 Объем
Project Hail Mary
99%
They Will Kill You
<1%
Hoppers
<1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
<1%
Reminders of Him
<1%
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Project Hail Mary's commanding 99.5% implied probability stems from its record-shattering $123 million domestic opening last weekend, fueled by Ryan Gosling's star power, glowing reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes), and A CinemaScore audience love for the sci-fi adaptation. Second-weekend forecasts peg it at $55-65 million, dwarfing modest opening projections for rivals like Blumhouse's horror They Will Kill You ($15-20M estimate) and animated Hoppers (under $10M). Historical holds for word-of-mouth hits like Dune 2 bolster trader confidence in a multiplier north of 3x. Realistic upsets hinge on a disastrous 50%+ drop for Hail Mary amid poor weather or competition, or a viral breakout from an opener exceeding $70M—scenarios defying current tracking.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы