Polymarket traders are assigning a 58% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing above 6,000 by March 31, propelled by the index's rally to fresh highs above 6,100 on robust tech earnings and soft-landing optimism following December's Fed rate cut. Sentiment hinges on sustained economic resilience, with nonfarm payrolls beating estimates and unemployment steady at 4.1%, yet risks lurk from persistent core PCE inflation near 2.8%. Critical catalysts include March 12 CPI, March 13 PPI, and the FOMC meeting on March 18-19, where hawkish dot plot shifts could trigger pullbacks to 5,900 support; historical end-of-quarter rebalancing favors mild upside amid low VIX levels around 15.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто покажет S&P 500 (SPX) к концу марта?
Что покажет S&P 500 (SPX) к концу марта?
$542,964 Объем
↑ $8 000
<1%
↑ $7,500
1%
↑ $7,300
1%
↑ $7,200
1%
↑ 7 100 $
4%
↑ $7,000
3%
↑ $6,900
5%
↓ $6,400
46%
↓ $6,300
26%
↓ $6,200
19%
↓ $6,000
14%
↓ $5 000
1%
$542,964 Объем
↑ $8 000
<1%
↑ $7,500
1%
↑ $7,300
1%
↑ $7,200
1%
↑ 7 100 $
4%
↑ $7,000
3%
↑ $6,900
5%
↓ $6,400
46%
↓ $6,300
26%
↓ $6,200
19%
↓ $6,000
14%
↓ $5 000
1%
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are assigning a 58% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing above 6,000 by March 31, propelled by the index's rally to fresh highs above 6,100 on robust tech earnings and soft-landing optimism following December's Fed rate cut. Sentiment hinges on sustained economic resilience, with nonfarm payrolls beating estimates and unemployment steady at 4.1%, yet risks lurk from persistent core PCE inflation near 2.8%. Critical catalysts include March 12 CPI, March 13 PPI, and the FOMC meeting on March 18-19, where hawkish dot plot shifts could trigger pullbacks to 5,900 support; historical end-of-quarter rebalancing favors mild upside amid low VIX levels around 15.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы