Polymarket traders price a 45.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 at end-March 2025, reflecting caution despite the index's recent surge to record highs above 6,030 following the U.S. presidential election outcome and Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point rate cut in November. Elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x—coupled with prospective tariff policies risking higher inflation and margin compression for multinationals, have capped upside sentiment, positioning the $6,400–$6,500 bucket at 22.5%. Resilient November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but nudged unemployment to 4.2%, signaling potential Fed pause. Key catalysts ahead include December 11 CPI data and the December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path expectations and equity positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$6,400–$6,500 56%
$6,500-$6,600 22%
< $6 400 16%
$6,600-$6,700 4%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
< $6 400
25%
$6,400–$6,500
56%
$6,500-$6,600
22%
$6,600-$6,700
11%
$6,700–$6,800
4%
$6,800–$6,900
2%
$6,900-$7,000
2%
$7,000–$7,100
1%
$7,100–$7,200
1%
$7,200–$7,300
<1%
>$7,300
1%
$6,400–$6,500 56%
$6,500-$6,600 22%
< $6 400 16%
$6,600-$6,700 4%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
< $6 400
$1,009 Объем
25%
$6,400–$6,500
$1,512 Объем
56%
$6,500-$6,600
$1,947 Объем
22%
$6,600-$6,700
$105 Объем
11%
$6,700–$6,800
$621 Объем
4%
$6,800–$6,900
$1,327 Объем
2%
$6,900-$7,000
$269 Объем
2%
$7,000–$7,100
$74 Объем
1%
$7,100–$7,200
$61 Объем
1%
$7,200–$7,300
$92 Объем
<1%
>$7,300
$247 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 45.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 at end-March 2025, reflecting caution despite the index's recent surge to record highs above 6,030 following the U.S. presidential election outcome and Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point rate cut in November. Elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x—coupled with prospective tariff policies risking higher inflation and margin compression for multinationals, have capped upside sentiment, positioning the $6,400–$6,500 bucket at 22.5%. Resilient November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but nudged unemployment to 4.2%, signaling potential Fed pause. Key catalysts ahead include December 11 CPI data and the December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path expectations and equity positioning.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Объем
$6,067Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 45.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 at end-March 2025, reflecting caution despite the index's recent surge to record highs above 6,030 following the U.S. presidential election outcome and Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point rate cut in November. Elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x—coupled with prospective tariff policies risking higher inflation and margin compression for multinationals, have capped upside sentiment, positioning the $6,400–$6,500 bucket at 22.5%. Resilient November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but nudged unemployment to 4.2%, signaling potential Fed pause. Key catalysts ahead include December 11 CPI data and the December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path expectations and equity positioning.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$6,067Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 45.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 at end-March 2025, reflecting caution despite the index's recent surge to record highs above 6,030 following the U.S. presidential election outcome and Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point rate cut in November. Elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x—coupled with prospective tariff policies risking higher inflation and margin compression for multinationals, have capped upside sentiment, positioning the $6,400–$6,500 bucket at 22.5%. Resilient November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but nudged unemployment to 4.2%, signaling potential Fed pause. Key catalysts ahead include December 11 CPI data and the December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path expectations and equity positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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