Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026, reflecting concerns over elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x amid decelerating earnings growth projections—and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook following November's cooler-than-expected CPI (2.7% headline). Recent post-election rally pushed the index above 6,000 for the first time, fueled by anticipated Trump-era tax cuts and deregulation, yet sticky core inflation at 3.3% and Fed signals for just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 temper upside, boosting mid-range bins like $6,500-$7,000 (18.5%) on resilient Q3 earnings (15% YoY growth) from megacap tech. Key swing factors include December 18 FOMC guidance and Q4 GDP data, with historical base rates suggesting 8-10% annualized returns from current levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
Что закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
< $6,000 36%
$6,500–$7,000 19%
$7,000–$7,500 18%
$6,000–$6,500 17%
$11,179 Объем
$11,179 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
< $6,000
36%
$6,000–$6,500
17%
$6,500–$7,000
19%
$7,000–$7,500
18%
$7,500–$8,000
9%
>$8,000
11%
< $6,000 36%
$6,500–$7,000 19%
$7,000–$7,500 18%
$6,000–$6,500 17%
$11,179 Объем
$11,179 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
< $6,000
$6,481 Объем
36%
$6,000–$6,500
$854 Объем
17%
$6,500–$7,000
$1,137 Объем
19%
$7,000–$7,500
$564 Объем
18%
$7,500–$8,000
$985 Объем
9%
>$8,000
$1,158 Объем
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026, reflecting concerns over elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x amid decelerating earnings growth projections—and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook following November's cooler-than-expected CPI (2.7% headline). Recent post-election rally pushed the index above 6,000 for the first time, fueled by anticipated Trump-era tax cuts and deregulation, yet sticky core inflation at 3.3% and Fed signals for just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 temper upside, boosting mid-range bins like $6,500-$7,000 (18.5%) on resilient Q3 earnings (15% YoY growth) from megacap tech. Key swing factors include December 18 FOMC guidance and Q4 GDP data, with historical base rates suggesting 8-10% annualized returns from current levels.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$11,179Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026, reflecting concerns over elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x amid decelerating earnings growth projections—and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook following November's cooler-than-expected CPI (2.7% headline). Recent post-election rally pushed the index above 6,000 for the first time, fueled by anticipated Trump-era tax cuts and deregulation, yet sticky core inflation at 3.3% and Fed signals for just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 temper upside, boosting mid-range bins like $6,500-$7,000 (18.5%) on resilient Q3 earnings (15% YoY growth) from megacap tech. Key swing factors include December 18 FOMC guidance and Q4 GDP data, with historical base rates suggesting 8-10% annualized returns from current levels.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$11,179Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026, reflecting concerns over elevated valuations—forward P/E ratios near 22x amid decelerating earnings growth projections—and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook following November's cooler-than-expected CPI (2.7% headline). Recent post-election rally pushed the index above 6,000 for the first time, fueled by anticipated Trump-era tax cuts and deregulation, yet sticky core inflation at 3.3% and Fed signals for just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 temper upside, boosting mid-range bins like $6,500-$7,000 (18.5%) on resilient Q3 earnings (15% YoY growth) from megacap tech. Key swing factors include December 18 FOMC guidance and Q4 GDP data, with historical base rates suggesting 8-10% annualized returns from current levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы