Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a leading 30% implied probability to the S&P 500 (SPX) closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, edging out $6,500-$7,000 at 23% and <$6,000 at 21%, signaling balanced expectations for range-bound trading from current levels near 7,250 after recent all-time highs. Robust Q1 2026 earnings, with S&P 500 profits up over 13% year-over-year driven by tech beats, fueled last week's rally amid retreating oil prices post-Middle East tensions. However, sticky March CPI at 3.3% and the Fed's unchanged 3.5%-3.75% funds rate curb aggressive upside, while mixed nonfarm payrolls—178,000 added in March after February's drop—underscore labor fragility. April CPI due May 12 and Q2 earnings loom as pivotal swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЧто закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
Что закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
$7,000–$7,500 29%
< $6,000 21%
>$8,000 16%
$6,000–$6,500 15%
$24,484 Объем
$24,484 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
21%
$6,000–$6,500
18%
$6,500–$7,000
20%
$7,000–$7,500
28%
$7,500–$8,000
13%
>$8,000
15%
$7,000–$7,500 29%
< $6,000 21%
>$8,000 16%
$6,000–$6,500 15%
$24,484 Объем
$24,484 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
$15,395 Объем
21%
$6,000–$6,500
$1,429 Объем
18%
$6,500–$7,000
$2,308 Объем
20%
$7,000–$7,500
$1,114 Объем
28%
$7,500–$8,000
$1,999 Объем
13%
>$8,000
$2,240 Объем
15%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a leading 30% implied probability to the S&P 500 (SPX) closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, edging out $6,500-$7,000 at 23% and <$6,000 at 21%, signaling balanced expectations for range-bound trading from current levels near 7,250 after recent all-time highs. Robust Q1 2026 earnings, with S&P 500 profits up over 13% year-over-year driven by tech beats, fueled last week's rally amid retreating oil prices post-Middle East tensions. However, sticky March CPI at 3.3% and the Fed's unchanged 3.5%-3.75% funds rate curb aggressive upside, while mixed nonfarm payrolls—178,000 added in March after February's drop—underscore labor fragility. April CPI due May 12 and Q2 earnings loom as pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$24,484Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a leading 30% implied probability to the S&P 500 (SPX) closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, edging out $6,500-$7,000 at 23% and <$6,000 at 21%, signaling balanced expectations for range-bound trading from current levels near 7,250 after recent all-time highs. Robust Q1 2026 earnings, with S&P 500 profits up over 13% year-over-year driven by tech beats, fueled last week's rally amid retreating oil prices post-Middle East tensions. However, sticky March CPI at 3.3% and the Fed's unchanged 3.5%-3.75% funds rate curb aggressive upside, while mixed nonfarm payrolls—178,000 added in March after February's drop—underscore labor fragility. April CPI due May 12 and Q2 earnings loom as pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$24,484Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a leading 30% implied probability to the S&P 500 (SPX) closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, edging out $6,500-$7,000 at 23% and <$6,000 at 21%, signaling balanced expectations for range-bound trading from current levels near 7,250 after recent all-time highs. Robust Q1 2026 earnings, with S&P 500 profits up over 13% year-over-year driven by tech beats, fueled last week's rally amid retreating oil prices post-Middle East tensions. However, sticky March CPI at 3.3% and the Fed's unchanged 3.5%-3.75% funds rate curb aggressive upside, while mixed nonfarm payrolls—178,000 added in March after February's drop—underscore labor fragility. April CPI due May 12 and Q2 earnings loom as pivotal swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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