Strong second-quarter earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, have anchored trader expectations for a year-end close above 8,000. With the index near 7,657 in mid-September after gains of roughly 12% year-to-date, recent brokerage upgrades—such as Barclays to 7,950 and HSBC to 8,100—align with the market-implied 43.5% probability on levels exceeding 8,000. Resilient corporate margins and AI-driven revenue growth continue to outweigh concerns over elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady policy rate near 3.5–3.75%, supporting the 22.5% probability band of 7,500–8,000 as the next most favored outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено>$8,000 44%
$7,500–$8,000 23%
$7,000–$7,500 21%
$6,500–$7,000 11%
$43,068 Объем
$43,068 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
8%
$6,000–$6,500
8%
$6,500–$7,000
11%
$7,000–$7,500
21%
$7,500–$8,000
23%
>$8,000
44%
>$8,000 44%
$7,500–$8,000 23%
$7,000–$7,500 21%
$6,500–$7,000 11%
$43,068 Объем
$43,068 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
$22,369 Объем
8%
$6,000–$6,500
$2,376 Объем
8%
$6,500–$7,000
$4,628 Объем
11%
$7,000–$7,500
$2,756 Объем
21%
$7,500–$8,000
$4,299 Объем
23%
>$8,000
$6,640 Объем
44%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong second-quarter earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, have anchored trader expectations for a year-end close above 8,000. With the index near 7,657 in mid-September after gains of roughly 12% year-to-date, recent brokerage upgrades—such as Barclays to 7,950 and HSBC to 8,100—align with the market-implied 43.5% probability on levels exceeding 8,000. Resilient corporate margins and AI-driven revenue growth continue to outweigh concerns over elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady policy rate near 3.5–3.75%, supporting the 22.5% probability band of 7,500–8,000 as the next most favored outcome.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$43,068Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong second-quarter earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, have anchored trader expectations for a year-end close above 8,000. With the index near 7,657 in mid-September after gains of roughly 12% year-to-date, recent brokerage upgrades—such as Barclays to 7,950 and HSBC to 8,100—align with the market-implied 43.5% probability on levels exceeding 8,000. Resilient corporate margins and AI-driven revenue growth continue to outweigh concerns over elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady policy rate near 3.5–3.75%, supporting the 22.5% probability band of 7,500–8,000 as the next most favored outcome.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$43,068Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Strong second-quarter earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, have anchored trader expectations for a year-end close above 8,000. With the index near 7,657 in mid-September after gains of roughly 12% year-to-date, recent brokerage upgrades—such as Barclays to 7,950 and HSBC to 8,100—align with the market-implied 43.5% probability on levels exceeding 8,000. Resilient corporate margins and AI-driven revenue growth continue to outweigh concerns over elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady policy rate near 3.5–3.75%, supporting the 22.5% probability band of 7,500–8,000 as the next most favored outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы