Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint passengers on March 31, driven by the protracted Department of Homeland Security shutdown fueling acute staffing shortages—up to 50% call-out rates and over 450 officer resignations—causing record four-hour security lines that deterred travel demand. Official TSA data released April 1 confirms 2,154,213 screenings, down from March 30's 2.53 million (12% below year-ago levels) and recent peaks near 2.75 million, reflecting sustained volume suppression amid economic uncertainty. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include data revisions or sudden shutdown end spurring rebound traffic, though confirmed figures minimize such risks ahead of routine weekly updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено<2.4M 100.0%
2.4M-2.6M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
$4,011 Объем
$4,011 Объем
<2.4M
Yes
2.4M-2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
>3.2M
No
<2.4M 100.0%
2.4M-2.6M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
$4,011 Объем
$4,011 Объем
<2.4M
Yes
2.4M-2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
>3.2M
No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint passengers on March 31, driven by the protracted Department of Homeland Security shutdown fueling acute staffing shortages—up to 50% call-out rates and over 450 officer resignations—causing record four-hour security lines that deterred travel demand. Official TSA data released April 1 confirms 2,154,213 screenings, down from March 30's 2.53 million (12% below year-ago levels) and recent peaks near 2.75 million, reflecting sustained volume suppression amid economic uncertainty. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include data revisions or sudden shutdown end spurring rebound traffic, though confirmed figures minimize such risks ahead of routine weekly updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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