Yulia Navalnaya holds a narrow frontrunner edge at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, her trader consensus bolstered by sustained anti-Putin activism carrying forward Alexei Navalny's dissident legacy amid Russia's Ukraine invasion. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by a fresh nomination this week from University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance as a bulwark for global democracy and human rights. Donald Trump ranks third at 7.5%, drawing on prior Abraham Accords momentum despite recent Nobel snub complaints eroding support. This fragmented field, with no outcome above 11%, underscores competing narratives in humanitarian crises, diplomacy, and conflict—from Gaza mediation bids by Qatar's Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to ICJ rulings—highlighting the Nobel committee's secretive voter dynamics ahead of the October announcement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЮлия Навальная 11%
Владимир Зеленский 9.8%
Дональд Трамп 8%
Международный суд ООН 4.0%
$11,718,547 Объем
$11,718,547 Объем
Юлия Навальная
11%
Владимир Зеленский
10%
Дональд Трамп
8%
Международный суд ООН
4%
Папа Лев XIV
4%
UNRWA
3%
Тамим бин Хамад аль-Тани
3%
Грета Тунберг
3%
Нарендра Моди
3%
Чарли Кирк
2%
Антониу Гутеррес
2%
Илон Маск
2%
Джулиан Ассанж
2%
Си Цзиньпин
2%
Халед Машаль
1%
Мохаммед бин Салман
1%
Ахмед аль-Шараа
1%
Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган
1%
Владимир Путин
1%
Беньямин Нетаньяху
1%
Юлия Навальная 11%
Владимир Зеленский 9.8%
Дональд Трамп 8%
Международный суд ООН 4.0%
$11,718,547 Объем
$11,718,547 Объем
Юлия Навальная
11%
Владимир Зеленский
10%
Дональд Трамп
8%
Международный суд ООН
4%
Папа Лев XIV
4%
UNRWA
3%
Тамим бин Хамад аль-Тани
3%
Грета Тунберг
3%
Нарендра Моди
3%
Чарли Кирк
2%
Антониу Гутеррес
2%
Илон Маск
2%
Джулиан Ассанж
2%
Си Цзиньпин
2%
Халед Машаль
1%
Мохаммед бин Салман
1%
Ахмед аль-Шараа
1%
Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган
1%
Владимир Путин
1%
Беньямин Нетаньяху
1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Открытие рынка: Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yulia Navalnaya holds a narrow frontrunner edge at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, her trader consensus bolstered by sustained anti-Putin activism carrying forward Alexei Navalny's dissident legacy amid Russia's Ukraine invasion. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by a fresh nomination this week from University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance as a bulwark for global democracy and human rights. Donald Trump ranks third at 7.5%, drawing on prior Abraham Accords momentum despite recent Nobel snub complaints eroding support. This fragmented field, with no outcome above 11%, underscores competing narratives in humanitarian crises, diplomacy, and conflict—from Gaza mediation bids by Qatar's Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to ICJ rulings—highlighting the Nobel committee's secretive voter dynamics ahead of the October announcement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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