Trader consensus favors 20-24 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 65.8% implied probability, reflecting severely curtailed traffic amid Iran's de facto blockade since the February 28 conflict escalation, which dropped daily volumes from a pre-crisis average of over 100 vessels to 2-6 amid sporadic IRGC attacks and war risk premiums at 50 times normal levels. Partial IMF PortWatch data through March 22 tallied 15 transits—including peaks of six on March 20 via tolled passages near Larak Island for non-hostile vessels from India and Pakistan—bolstering expectations for a late-week uptick, while 15-19 at 28.2% accounts for risks from U.S. aerial strikes starting March 18 and stalled peace talks. Higher bins remain negligible absent major de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
20-24 65.6%
15-19 22.7%
35-39 3.0%
<10 2.3%
$455,528 Объем
$455,528 Объем
23 мар. 2026 г.
<10
2%
10-14
<1%
15-19
28%
20-24
66%
25-29
1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
3%
40-44
<1%
45+
<1%
20-24 65.6%
15-19 22.7%
35-39 3.0%
<10 2.3%
$455,528 Объем
$455,528 Объем
23 мар. 2026 г.
<10
$53,879 Объем
2%
10-14
$39,927 Объем
<1%
15-19
$63,616 Объем
28%
20-24
$46,685 Объем
66%
25-29
$29,185 Объем
1%
30-34
$28,854 Объем
<1%
35-39
$39,771 Объем
3%
40-44
$50,485 Объем
<1%
45+
$103,128 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 65.8% implied probability, reflecting severely curtailed traffic amid Iran's de facto blockade since the February 28 conflict escalation, which dropped daily volumes from a pre-crisis average of over 100 vessels to 2-6 amid sporadic IRGC attacks and war risk premiums at 50 times normal levels. Partial IMF PortWatch data through March 22 tallied 15 transits—including peaks of six on March 20 via tolled passages near Larak Island for non-hostile vessels from India and Pakistan—bolstering expectations for a late-week uptick, while 15-19 at 28.2% accounts for risks from U.S. aerial strikes starting March 18 and stalled peace talks. Higher bins remain negligible absent major de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Объем
$455,528Дата окончания
23 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 65.8% implied probability, reflecting severely curtailed traffic amid Iran's de facto blockade since the February 28 conflict escalation, which dropped daily volumes from a pre-crisis average of over 100 vessels to 2-6 amid sporadic IRGC attacks and war risk premiums at 50 times normal levels. Partial IMF PortWatch data through March 22 tallied 15 transits—including peaks of six on March 20 via tolled passages near Larak Island for non-hostile vessels from India and Pakistan—bolstering expectations for a late-week uptick, while 15-19 at 28.2% accounts for risks from U.S. aerial strikes starting March 18 and stalled peace talks. Higher bins remain negligible absent major de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$455,528Дата окончания
23 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 20-24 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 65.8% implied probability, reflecting severely curtailed traffic amid Iran's de facto blockade since the February 28 conflict escalation, which dropped daily volumes from a pre-crisis average of over 100 vessels to 2-6 amid sporadic IRGC attacks and war risk premiums at 50 times normal levels. Partial IMF PortWatch data through March 22 tallied 15 transits—including peaks of six on March 20 via tolled passages near Larak Island for non-hostile vessels from India and Pakistan—bolstering expectations for a late-week uptick, while 15-19 at 28.2% accounts for risks from U.S. aerial strikes starting March 18 and stalled peace talks. Higher bins remain negligible absent major de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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