Consensus weather forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and global models like GFS drive the 97.6% market-implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 20 to reach 32°C or below, aligning with recent observations of mild conditions amid lingering winter influences and partly cloudy skies. Historical March data shows average highs around 31-33°C, with current upper-air patterns favoring stability over rapid warming. This positioning reflects low volatility in ensemble model outputs, projecting peaks near 31°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen western disturbance clearing prematurely or a sudden influx of hot continental air, though such model busts occur in under 5% of similar spring setups per verification stats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
32°C или ниже 98.3%
33°C <1%
35°C <1%
34°C <1%
$46,171 Объем
$46,171 Объем
32°C или ниже
98%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
32°C или ниже 98.3%
33°C <1%
35°C <1%
34°C <1%
$46,171 Объем
$46,171 Объем
32°C или ниже
98%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Consensus weather forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and global models like GFS drive the 97.6% market-implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 20 to reach 32°C or below, aligning with recent observations of mild conditions amid lingering winter influences and partly cloudy skies. Historical March data shows average highs around 31-33°C, with current upper-air patterns favoring stability over rapid warming. This positioning reflects low volatility in ensemble model outputs, projecting peaks near 31°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen western disturbance clearing prematurely or a sudden influx of hot continental air, though such model busts occur in under 5% of similar spring setups per verification stats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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