Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and production shutdowns amid the ongoing regional conflict, have propelled WTI crude oil (CL) front-month futures above $112 per barrel as of April 3, 2026, driving June contract pricing to around $98 and positioning the >$84 outcome at 67% implied probability as trader consensus. OPEC+ production cuts and steady output policies through Q2 reinforce supply tightness despite a recent U.S. EIA-reported 5.5 million barrel crude inventory build for the week ending March 27, which failed to dent sentiment. Chinese import surges earlier in the year support demand, though forecasts vary; key catalysts include next week's EIA data and any Hormuz resolution signals ahead of June settlement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНа что будет рассчитана цена на сырую нефть (CL) в июне?
На что будет рассчитана цена на сырую нефть (CL) в июне?
>$84 67%
$77-$84 14%
$70–$77 7.3%
$63-$70 5.3%
$100,756 Объем
$100,756 Объем
< $42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56–$63
3%
$63-$70
5%
$70–$77
7%
$77-$84
14%
>$84
67%
>$84 67%
$77-$84 14%
$70–$77 7.3%
$63-$70 5.3%
$100,756 Объем
$100,756 Объем
< $42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56–$63
3%
$63-$70
5%
$70–$77
7%
$77-$84
14%
>$84
67%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Открытие рынка: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and production shutdowns amid the ongoing regional conflict, have propelled WTI crude oil (CL) front-month futures above $112 per barrel as of April 3, 2026, driving June contract pricing to around $98 and positioning the >$84 outcome at 67% implied probability as trader consensus. OPEC+ production cuts and steady output policies through Q2 reinforce supply tightness despite a recent U.S. EIA-reported 5.5 million barrel crude inventory build for the week ending March 27, which failed to dent sentiment. Chinese import surges earlier in the year support demand, though forecasts vary; key catalysts include next week's EIA data and any Hormuz resolution signals ahead of June settlement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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