OpenAI's ChatGPT large language model has maintained full operational status through most of March 31, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 98.2% implied probability for "No" full outage, as confirmed by the company's status page reporting 99.98% uptime since December and no active disruptions on Downdetector. A brief 30-minute elevated error incident earlier today was rapidly mitigated, underscoring OpenAI's enhanced AI infrastructure resilience following February's more prolonged disruptions. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects stable server capacity amid steady user demand, with no regulatory interventions or major cyber threats reported. Realistic risks remain, including unforeseen cascading failures from traffic spikes, novel exploits, or hardware overloads before midnight resolution, though historical patterns favor quick recovery.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$14,599 Объем
$14,599 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
$14,599 Объем
$14,599 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's ChatGPT large language model has maintained full operational status through most of March 31, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 98.2% implied probability for "No" full outage, as confirmed by the company's status page reporting 99.98% uptime since December and no active disruptions on Downdetector. A brief 30-minute elevated error incident earlier today was rapidly mitigated, underscoring OpenAI's enhanced AI infrastructure resilience following February's more prolonged disruptions. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects stable server capacity amid steady user demand, with no regulatory interventions or major cyber threats reported. Realistic risks remain, including unforeseen cascading failures from traffic spikes, novel exploits, or hardware overloads before midnight resolution, though historical patterns favor quick recovery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$14,599Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's ChatGPT large language model has maintained full operational status through most of March 31, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 98.2% implied probability for "No" full outage, as confirmed by the company's status page reporting 99.98% uptime since December and no active disruptions on Downdetector. A brief 30-minute elevated error incident earlier today was rapidly mitigated, underscoring OpenAI's enhanced AI infrastructure resilience following February's more prolonged disruptions. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects stable server capacity amid steady user demand, with no regulatory interventions or major cyber threats reported. Realistic risks remain, including unforeseen cascading failures from traffic spikes, novel exploits, or hardware overloads before midnight resolution, though historical patterns favor quick recovery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$14,599Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's ChatGPT large language model has maintained full operational status through most of March 31, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 98.2% implied probability for "No" full outage, as confirmed by the company's status page reporting 99.98% uptime since December and no active disruptions on Downdetector. A brief 30-minute elevated error incident earlier today was rapidly mitigated, underscoring OpenAI's enhanced AI infrastructure resilience following February's more prolonged disruptions. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects stable server capacity amid steady user demand, with no regulatory interventions or major cyber threats reported. Realistic risks remain, including unforeseen cascading failures from traffic spikes, novel exploits, or hardware overloads before midnight resolution, though historical patterns favor quick recovery.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы