Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.2% implied probability due to its explosive early presales—already exceeding $50 million domestically with over 100 days until release—and tracking estimates of $260–350 million for the opening weekend. The Marvel crossover event, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning icons and new franchise crossovers, draws broader audience interest and holiday timing momentum than Dune: Part Three’s projected franchise-record $100 million-plus debut. While Dune secures IMAX exclusivity for premium screens and benefits from strong critical anticipation for Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy conclusion, its sci-fi scope and prior benchmarks limit upside against Avengers’ scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, requiring either unexpectedly soft Doomsday reviews or a Dune-driven premium-format surge that narrows the gap more than current data suggests.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDuna 3 ou Avengers: Doomsday vão arrecadar mais no fim de semana de estreia?
Duna 3 ou Avengers: Doomsday vão arrecadar mais no fim de semana de estreia?
Duna 3
3% chance
$53,740 Vol.
$53,740 Vol.
19 dez 2026
Duna 3
3% chance
$53,740 Vol.
$53,740 Vol.
19 dez 2026
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.2% implied probability due to its explosive early presales—already exceeding $50 million domestically with over 100 days until release—and tracking estimates of $260–350 million for the opening weekend. The Marvel crossover event, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning icons and new franchise crossovers, draws broader audience interest and holiday timing momentum than Dune: Part Three’s projected franchise-record $100 million-plus debut. While Dune secures IMAX exclusivity for premium screens and benefits from strong critical anticipation for Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy conclusion, its sci-fi scope and prior benchmarks limit upside against Avengers’ scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, requiring either unexpectedly soft Doomsday reviews or a Dune-driven premium-format surge that narrows the gap more than current data suggests.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$53,740Data de Término
20 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.2% implied probability due to its explosive early presales—already exceeding $50 million domestically with over 100 days until release—and tracking estimates of $260–350 million for the opening weekend. The Marvel crossover event, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning icons and new franchise crossovers, draws broader audience interest and holiday timing momentum than Dune: Part Three’s projected franchise-record $100 million-plus debut. While Dune secures IMAX exclusivity for premium screens and benefits from strong critical anticipation for Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy conclusion, its sci-fi scope and prior benchmarks limit upside against Avengers’ scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, requiring either unexpectedly soft Doomsday reviews or a Dune-driven premium-format surge that narrows the gap more than current data suggests.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Volume
$53,740Data de Término
20 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.2% implied probability due to its explosive early presales—already exceeding $50 million domestically with over 100 days until release—and tracking estimates of $260–350 million for the opening weekend. The Marvel crossover event, directed by the Russo brothers and starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning icons and new franchise crossovers, draws broader audience interest and holiday timing momentum than Dune: Part Three’s projected franchise-record $100 million-plus debut. While Dune secures IMAX exclusivity for premium screens and benefits from strong critical anticipation for Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy conclusion, its sci-fi scope and prior benchmarks limit upside against Avengers’ scale. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow, requiring either unexpectedly soft Doomsday reviews or a Dune-driven premium-format surge that narrows the gap more than current data suggests.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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