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Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?

Market icon

Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Vingadores: Juízo Final 73%

Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia 11%

Duna: Messias 2.3%

Toy Story 5 2.1%

Polymarket

$1,020,490 Vol.

Vingadores: Juízo Final 73%

Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia 11%

Duna: Messias 2.3%

Toy Story 5 2.1%

Polymarket

$1,020,490 Vol.

Vingadores: Juízo Final

$90,235 Vol.

73%

Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia

$26,768 Vol.

11%

Duna: Messias

$81,293 Vol.

2%

Toy Story 5

$173,886 Vol.

2%

A Odisseia

$0 Vol.

2%

Michael

$482,799 Vol.

1%

Star Wars: The Mandalorian e Grogu

$0 Vol.

1%

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

$0 Vol.

<1%

Projeto Hail Mary

$0 Vol.

<1%

Scream 7

$42,654 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday for 2026's biggest opening weekend at a dominant 72.5% implied probability, propelled by Marvel's box office supremacy—previous Avengers films like Endgame posted $357 million domestic debuts—and the bombshell San Diego Comic-Con announcement of Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with Russo brothers directing for its prime May 1 slot. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% as another MCU summer tentpole on July 31, leveraging Tom Holland's star power amid high fan anticipation. Dune: Messiah (2.5%), Toy Story 5 (2.1%), and The Odyssey (2.1%) lag due to later releases, sequel fatigue risks, and stiffer holiday competition; early tracking estimates and first trailers could spark shifts in this crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,020,490
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday for 2026's biggest opening weekend at a dominant 72.5% implied probability, propelled by Marvel's box office supremacy—previous Avengers films like Endgame posted $357 million domestic debuts—and the bombshell San Diego Comic-Con announcement of Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with Russo brothers directing for its prime May 1 slot. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% as another MCU summer tentpole on July 31, leveraging Tom Holland's star power amid high fan anticipation. Dune: Messiah (2.5%), Toy Story 5 (2.1%), and The Odyssey (2.1%) lag due to later releases, sequel fatigue risks, and stiffer holiday competition; early tracking estimates and first trailers could spark shifts in this crowded field.

Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday for 2026's biggest opening weekend at a dominant 72.5% implied probability, propelled by Marvel's box office supremacy—previous Avengers films like Endgame posted $357 million domestic debuts—and the bombshell San Diego Comic-Con announcement of Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with Russo brothers directing for its prime May 1 slot. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% as another MCU summer tentpole on July 31, leveraging Tom Holland's star power amid high fan anticipation. Dune: Messiah (2.5%), Toy Story 5 (2.1%), and The Odyssey (2.1%) lag due to later releases, sequel fatigue risks, and stiffer holiday competition; early tracking estimates and first trailers could spark shifts in this crowded field.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Vingadores: Juízo Final" at 73%, followed by "Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?" is "Vingadores: Juízo Final" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.