Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its status as Marvel's premier tentpole—directed by the Russo brothers, featuring Robert Downey Jr.'s triumphant return as Doctor Doom, and slated for a prime December 18 holiday slot despite clashing with Dune: Messiah. Historical MCU benchmarks like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut underscore its frontrunner momentum, amplified by recent teaser trailers sparking massive fan buzz. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds steady at 11.5% on yesterday's record-breaking first trailer, fueling summer blockbuster hype for its July 31 release and Tom Holland's star power. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 trail due to animated family appeal yielding softer openings amid fierce superhero competition; watch presales and final tracking for shifts ahead of June and July premieres.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?
Qual filme tem o maior fim de semana de estreia em 2026?
Vingadores: Juízo Final 73%
Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia 12%
Toy Story 5 2.6%
Duna: Messias 2.3%
$1,048,743 Vol.
$1,048,743 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Vingadores: Juízo Final
73%
Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia
12%
Toy Story 5
3%
Duna: Messias
2%
A Odisseia
2%
Michael
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian e Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Scream 7
<1%
Projeto Hail Mary
<1%
Vingadores: Juízo Final 73%
Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia 12%
Toy Story 5 2.6%
Duna: Messias 2.3%
$1,048,743 Vol.
$1,048,743 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Vingadores: Juízo Final
$90,262 Vol.
73%
Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia
$26,788 Vol.
12%
Toy Story 5
$173,926 Vol.
3%
Duna: Messias
$81,306 Vol.
2%
A Odisseia
$0 Vol.
2%
Michael
$482,805 Vol.
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian e Grogu
$28,146 Vol.
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$0 Vol.
<1%
Scream 7
$42,654 Vol.
<1%
Projeto Hail Mary
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its status as Marvel's premier tentpole—directed by the Russo brothers, featuring Robert Downey Jr.'s triumphant return as Doctor Doom, and slated for a prime December 18 holiday slot despite clashing with Dune: Messiah. Historical MCU benchmarks like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut underscore its frontrunner momentum, amplified by recent teaser trailers sparking massive fan buzz. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds steady at 11.5% on yesterday's record-breaking first trailer, fueling summer blockbuster hype for its July 31 release and Tom Holland's star power. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 trail due to animated family appeal yielding softer openings amid fierce superhero competition; watch presales and final tracking for shifts ahead of June and July premieres.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,048,743Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its status as Marvel's premier tentpole—directed by the Russo brothers, featuring Robert Downey Jr.'s triumphant return as Doctor Doom, and slated for a prime December 18 holiday slot despite clashing with Dune: Messiah. Historical MCU benchmarks like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut underscore its frontrunner momentum, amplified by recent teaser trailers sparking massive fan buzz. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds steady at 11.5% on yesterday's record-breaking first trailer, fueling summer blockbuster hype for its July 31 release and Tom Holland's star power. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 trail due to animated family appeal yielding softer openings amid fierce superhero competition; watch presales and final tracking for shifts ahead of June and July premieres.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,048,743Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its status as Marvel's premier tentpole—directed by the Russo brothers, featuring Robert Downey Jr.'s triumphant return as Doctor Doom, and slated for a prime December 18 holiday slot despite clashing with Dune: Messiah. Historical MCU benchmarks like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut underscore its frontrunner momentum, amplified by recent teaser trailers sparking massive fan buzz. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds steady at 11.5% on yesterday's record-breaking first trailer, fueling summer blockbuster hype for its July 31 release and Tom Holland's star power. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 trail due to animated family appeal yielding softer openings amid fierce superhero competition; watch presales and final tracking for shifts ahead of June and July premieres.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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