Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) for Q1 2026 S&P 500 additions, with implied probabilities around 40% and 25% respectively, fueled by market caps surpassing $60 billion and $40 billion post-U.S. election crypto surge. Both cleared key eligibility hurdles—positive trailing 12-month GAAP earnings from Q3 reports and high liquidity (average daily volume exceeding index thresholds)—positioning them ahead of rivals like Reddit. Odds shifted sharply after COIN's profitability streak, backed by $5 million in open interest. Watch Q4 2025 earnings in January for final viability confirmation ahead of the committee's late-December announcement, though discretionary sector balancing introduces uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$718,258 Vol.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
1%

Pure Storage (PSTG)
1%

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
1%

Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
1%

Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
<1%
$718,258 Vol.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
1%

Pure Storage (PSTG)
1%

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
1%

Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
1%

Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) for Q1 2026 S&P 500 additions, with implied probabilities around 40% and 25% respectively, fueled by market caps surpassing $60 billion and $40 billion post-U.S. election crypto surge. Both cleared key eligibility hurdles—positive trailing 12-month GAAP earnings from Q3 reports and high liquidity (average daily volume exceeding index thresholds)—positioning them ahead of rivals like Reddit. Odds shifted sharply after COIN's profitability streak, backed by $5 million in open interest. Watch Q4 2025 earnings in January for final viability confirmation ahead of the committee's late-December announcement, though discretionary sector balancing introduces uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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