Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 (SPX) to close March above 5,200, driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following sticky inflation data and resilient economic growth. The index recently hit all-time highs near 5,100 amid strong Q4 earnings beats from megacaps like Nvidia, fueled by AI demand, with year-to-date gains exceeding 8%. Key risks include the March 19-20 FOMC meeting, where markets price a 75% chance of steady 5.25-5.50% fed funds rate per CME FedWatch, alongside CPI (March 12) and PPI (March 13) releases that could shift yield curves. Historical March seasonality shows modest 0.5% median gains, but current real yields below 4% support upside momentum if recession fears ease.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) hit in March?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit in March?
$92,409 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
↓ 5700
2%
↓ 5600
1%
↓ 5500
1%
↓ 5350
1%
↓ 5200
1%
↓ 5000
1%
↓ 4750
<1%
$92,409 Vol.
↓ 5700
$719 Vol.
2%
↓ 5600
$1,280 Vol.
1%
↓ 5500
$31,277 Vol.
1%
↓ 5350
$20,612 Vol.
1%
↓ 5200
$0 Vol.
1%
↓ 5000
$1,101 Vol.
1%
↓ 4750
$37,421 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Volume
$92,409Data de Término
Apr 1, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
Volume
$92,409Data de Término
Apr 1, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 (SPX) to close March above 5,200, driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following sticky inflation data and resilient economic growth. The index recently hit all-time highs near 5,100 amid strong Q4 earnings beats from megacaps like Nvidia, fueled by AI demand, with year-to-date gains exceeding 8%. Key risks include the March 19-20 FOMC meeting, where markets price a 75% chance of steady 5.25-5.50% fed funds rate per CME FedWatch, alongside CPI (March 12) and PPI (March 13) releases that could shift yield curves. Historical March seasonality shows modest 0.5% median gains, but current real yields below 4% support upside momentum if recession fears ease.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions