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Finanças·Esconder Do Novo

O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?

Market icon
Finanças·Esconder Do Novo

O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

Abaixo de $6.000 38%

$6.500-$7.000 19%

$7.000-$7.500 19%

$6.000–$6.500 17%

Polymarket

$11,179 Vol.

Abaixo de $6.000 38%

$6.500-$7.000 19%

$7.000-$7.500 19%

$6.000–$6.500 17%

Polymarket

$11,179 Vol.

Abaixo de $6.000

$6,481 Vol.

38%

$6.000–$6.500

$854 Vol.

17%

$6.500-$7.000

$1,137 Vol.

19%

$7.000-$7.500

$564 Vol.

19%

$7.500-$8.000

$985 Vol.

9%

>$8.000

$1,158 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de $6.000" at 38%, followed by "$6.500-$7.000" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" has generated $11.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" is "Abaixo de $6.000" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$6.500-$7.000" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.