The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSetembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Setembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 45%
1,40–1,44ºC 38%
<1,30ºC 26%
1,30–1,34ºC 14%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
26%
1,30–1,34ºC
14%
1,35–1,39ºC
45%
1,40–1,44ºC
38%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
7%
1,35–1,39ºC 45%
1,40–1,44ºC 38%
<1,30ºC 26%
1,30–1,34ºC 14%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
$69 Vol.
26%
1,30–1,34ºC
$1,343 Vol.
14%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
45%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$263 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,799Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,799Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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