Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability of no People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CST, driven by the policy rate remaining steady at 1.40% through March 30 amid daily open market operations, with no adjustment announced. This high confidence stems from the PBOC's March 20 decision to hold loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged for a tenth month at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year), alongside today's first-quarter Monetary Policy Committee reaffirmation of a moderately loose stance without easing signals. Reduced bets on cuts reflect better-than-expected economic activity and Mideast-driven inflation risks curbing urgency. Tail risks include an improbable last-minute emergency cut before resolution, though absent any precedent or indicators.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCorte na taxa do Banco Popular da China até 31 de março?
Corte na taxa do Banco Popular da China até 31 de março?
Sim
$119,637 Vol.
$119,637 Vol.
Sim
$119,637 Vol.
$119,637 Vol.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability of no People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CST, driven by the policy rate remaining steady at 1.40% through March 30 amid daily open market operations, with no adjustment announced. This high confidence stems from the PBOC's March 20 decision to hold loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged for a tenth month at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year), alongside today's first-quarter Monetary Policy Committee reaffirmation of a moderately loose stance without easing signals. Reduced bets on cuts reflect better-than-expected economic activity and Mideast-driven inflation risks curbing urgency. Tail risks include an improbable last-minute emergency cut before resolution, though absent any precedent or indicators.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions