Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers for April 3 at 69.2% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughputs remaining well below that threshold—April 2 recorded 2.71 million, April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged 2.15 million—reflecting a post-spring break lull despite earlier peaks. Good Friday flight chaos, with over 2,300 disruptions nationwide, further dampens volumes, as seen in year-over-year declines of around 10-12%. The distant tail of 3.0M-3.2M at 6.8% accounts for potential lingering holiday travel, but higher brackets languish below 1% absent a surge. Official TSA data, typically released mornings, will resolve the market amid ongoing staffing strains and elevated spring demand.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNumber of TSA Passengers April 3?
Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
3.0M-3.2M 6.7%
3.6M-3.8M <1%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
$5,828 Vol.
$5,828 Vol.
3 abr 2026
<3.0M
69%
3.0M-3.2M
7%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
1%
>3.8M
<1%
3.0M-3.2M 6.7%
3.6M-3.8M <1%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
$5,828 Vol.
$5,828 Vol.
3 abr 2026
<3.0M
$3,341 Vol.
69%
3.0M-3.2M
$361 Vol.
7%
3.2M-3.4M
$488 Vol.
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
$488 Vol.
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
$583 Vol.
1%
>3.8M
$567 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers for April 3 at 69.2% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughputs remaining well below that threshold—April 2 recorded 2.71 million, April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged 2.15 million—reflecting a post-spring break lull despite earlier peaks. Good Friday flight chaos, with over 2,300 disruptions nationwide, further dampens volumes, as seen in year-over-year declines of around 10-12%. The distant tail of 3.0M-3.2M at 6.8% accounts for potential lingering holiday travel, but higher brackets languish below 1% absent a surge. Official TSA data, typically released mornings, will resolve the market amid ongoing staffing strains and elevated spring demand.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volume
$5,828Data de Término
3 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers for April 3 at 69.2% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughputs remaining well below that threshold—April 2 recorded 2.71 million, April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged 2.15 million—reflecting a post-spring break lull despite earlier peaks. Good Friday flight chaos, with over 2,300 disruptions nationwide, further dampens volumes, as seen in year-over-year declines of around 10-12%. The distant tail of 3.0M-3.2M at 6.8% accounts for potential lingering holiday travel, but higher brackets languish below 1% absent a surge. Official TSA data, typically released mornings, will resolve the market amid ongoing staffing strains and elevated spring demand.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$5,828Data de Término
3 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers for April 3 at 69.2% implied probability, driven by recent daily throughputs remaining well below that threshold—April 2 recorded 2.71 million, April 1 hit 2.36 million, and March 31 logged 2.15 million—reflecting a post-spring break lull despite earlier peaks. Good Friday flight chaos, with over 2,300 disruptions nationwide, further dampens volumes, as seen in year-over-year declines of around 10-12%. The distant tail of 3.0M-3.2M at 6.8% accounts for potential lingering holiday travel, but higher brackets languish below 1% absent a surge. Official TSA data, typically released mornings, will resolve the market amid ongoing staffing strains and elevated spring demand.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions