Trader sentiment on India annual inflation for 2026 remains closely contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% band holding a slim 31% implied probability over 4.50%+ at 28.5%, reflecting February 2026 CPI's uptick to 3.21%—an 11-month high driven by food and metals prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FY26 projection of 2.1% average amid benign core inflation at 5.2%. Geopolitical oil risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, bolster higher-bucket bets by threatening imported inflation, while subdued wage pressures and prior declines support moderation within RBI's 4% target (±2% band). Key differentiator: food volatility versus steady monetary policy with repo rate at 5.25%. Watch March CPI release on April 13 for resolution cues.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado4,50%+ 30%
2,25% a 2,99% 27%
3,00% a 3,74% 12%
3,75% a 4,49% 12%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<0,75%
9%
0,75% a 1,49%
5%
1,50% a 2,24%
10%
2,25% a 2,99%
27%
3,00% a 3,74%
12%
3,75% a 4,49%
12%
4,50%+
30%
4,50%+ 30%
2,25% a 2,99% 27%
3,00% a 3,74% 12%
3,75% a 4,49% 12%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<0,75%
$568 Vol.
9%
0,75% a 1,49%
$271 Vol.
5%
1,50% a 2,24%
$340 Vol.
10%
2,25% a 2,99%
$22,328 Vol.
27%
3,00% a 3,74%
$375 Vol.
12%
3,75% a 4,49%
$22,735 Vol.
12%
4,50%+
$10,633 Vol.
30%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader sentiment on India annual inflation for 2026 remains closely contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% band holding a slim 31% implied probability over 4.50%+ at 28.5%, reflecting February 2026 CPI's uptick to 3.21%—an 11-month high driven by food and metals prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FY26 projection of 2.1% average amid benign core inflation at 5.2%. Geopolitical oil risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, bolster higher-bucket bets by threatening imported inflation, while subdued wage pressures and prior declines support moderation within RBI's 4% target (±2% band). Key differentiator: food volatility versus steady monetary policy with repo rate at 5.25%. Watch March CPI release on April 13 for resolution cues.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$57,251Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader sentiment on India annual inflation for 2026 remains closely contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% band holding a slim 31% implied probability over 4.50%+ at 28.5%, reflecting February 2026 CPI's uptick to 3.21%—an 11-month high driven by food and metals prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FY26 projection of 2.1% average amid benign core inflation at 5.2%. Geopolitical oil risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, bolster higher-bucket bets by threatening imported inflation, while subdued wage pressures and prior declines support moderation within RBI's 4% target (±2% band). Key differentiator: food volatility versus steady monetary policy with repo rate at 5.25%. Watch March CPI release on April 13 for resolution cues.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$57,251Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on India annual inflation for 2026 remains closely contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% band holding a slim 31% implied probability over 4.50%+ at 28.5%, reflecting February 2026 CPI's uptick to 3.21%—an 11-month high driven by food and metals prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FY26 projection of 2.1% average amid benign core inflation at 5.2%. Geopolitical oil risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, bolster higher-bucket bets by threatening imported inflation, while subdued wage pressures and prior declines support moderation within RBI's 4% target (±2% band). Key differentiator: food volatility versus steady monetary policy with repo rate at 5.25%. Watch March CPI release on April 13 for resolution cues.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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