Trader sentiment on Polymarket clusters tightly around $4,600-$5,400 for June gold futures (GC) settlement, with the top three bins aggregating nearly 50% implied probability, reflecting bullish consensus driven by expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD and boosting safe-haven demand. Current spot gold hovers near $2,660/oz amid persistent inflation above 2% targets, robust central bank purchases (led by China), and Middle East tensions, yet upside risks hinge on upcoming CPI releases and November elections—hawkish data could pivot odds toward $4,200-$4,600, while escalating geopolitics favors $5,800+ outcomes. This narrow spread underscores competitive dynamics, where trader capital weighs recession odds against sticky prices.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual será o preço do ouro (GC) em junho?
Qual será o preço do ouro (GC) em junho?
$5.000-$5.400 17.8%
$4.600-$5.000 18%
$5.400-$5.800 15%
$4.200-$4.600 13.3%
$407,683 Vol.
$407,683 Vol.
Abaixo de US$ 3.800
6%
$3.800-$4.200
6%
$4.200-$4.600
13%
$4.600-$5.000
18%
$5.000-$5.400
18%
$5.400-$5.800
15%
$5.800-$6.200
13%
>US$6.200
12%
$5.000-$5.400 17.8%
$4.600-$5.000 18%
$5.400-$5.800 15%
$4.200-$4.600 13.3%
$407,683 Vol.
$407,683 Vol.
Abaixo de US$ 3.800
6%
$3.800-$4.200
6%
$4.200-$4.600
13%
$4.600-$5.000
18%
$5.000-$5.400
18%
$5.400-$5.800
15%
$5.800-$6.200
13%
>US$6.200
12%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket clusters tightly around $4,600-$5,400 for June gold futures (GC) settlement, with the top three bins aggregating nearly 50% implied probability, reflecting bullish consensus driven by expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD and boosting safe-haven demand. Current spot gold hovers near $2,660/oz amid persistent inflation above 2% targets, robust central bank purchases (led by China), and Middle East tensions, yet upside risks hinge on upcoming CPI releases and November elections—hawkish data could pivot odds toward $4,200-$4,600, while escalating geopolitics favors $5,800+ outcomes. This narrow spread underscores competitive dynamics, where trader capital weighs recession odds against sticky prices.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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