Trader consensus prices the Netherlands at 59.5% implied probability to top FIFA World Cup Group F, fueled by their No. 6 FIFA ranking, squad depth featuring Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, and strong UEFA Nations League finish atop Group D with four wins. Japan's 20% stake surged after their gritty 3-1 World Cup qualifying victory over Australia on October 15, highlighting Samurai Blue's counterattacking edge and recent 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia that kept them atop their AFC group. The bundled 16% for Albania, Poland, Sweden, or Ukraine captures their competitive UEFA paths amid Nations League results like Poland's promotion push and Ukraine's resilience, while Tunisia trails at 4% following uneven CAF qualifying form with defensive lapses in recent matches. No major injuries alter the landscape ahead of qualifiers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHolanda 60%
Japão 20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 16%
Tunísia 4.0%
$23,142 Vol.
$23,142 Vol.
Holanda
60%
Japão
20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
16%
Tunísia
4%
Holanda 60%
Japão 20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 16%
Tunísia 4.0%
$23,142 Vol.
$23,142 Vol.
Holanda
60%
Japão
20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
16%
Tunísia
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the Netherlands at 59.5% implied probability to top FIFA World Cup Group F, fueled by their No. 6 FIFA ranking, squad depth featuring Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, and strong UEFA Nations League finish atop Group D with four wins. Japan's 20% stake surged after their gritty 3-1 World Cup qualifying victory over Australia on October 15, highlighting Samurai Blue's counterattacking edge and recent 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia that kept them atop their AFC group. The bundled 16% for Albania, Poland, Sweden, or Ukraine captures their competitive UEFA paths amid Nations League results like Poland's promotion push and Ukraine's resilience, while Tunisia trails at 4% following uneven CAF qualifying form with defensive lapses in recent matches. No major injuries alter the landscape ahead of qualifiers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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