Market icon

Decisão do Banco do México em maio

Market icon

Decisão do Banco do México em maio

Sem mudanças 77%

Redução 23%

Aumento <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Sem mudanças 77%

Redução 23%

Aumento <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Redução

$2,246 Vol.

23%

Sem mudanças

$3,692 Vol.

77%

Aumento

$2,199 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Banxico's unexpected 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26, 2026—a split-vote decision prioritizing weakening economic activity over headline inflation ticking up to 4.02% in February—has shaped trader consensus for the May 7 policy meeting, with no-change odds at 77% reflecting the bank's dovish surprise alongside Governor Rodríguez Ceja's March 30 signal that the easing cycle is "close to finishing." The 23% decrease probability captures bets on further GDP softness (forecasts near 1.6-1.8%) and resilient U.S. demand spillover, while hike odds near zero underscore absent inflationary acceleration risks. Traders eye April CPI data and labor metrics ahead of resolution, as markets price in balanced monetary policy amid Mexico's 3% inflation target midpoint.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$8,137
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Banxico's unexpected 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26, 2026—a split-vote decision prioritizing weakening economic activity over headline inflation ticking up to 4.02% in February—has shaped trader consensus for the May 7 policy meeting, with no-change odds at 77% reflecting the bank's dovish surprise alongside Governor Rodríguez Ceja's March 30 signal that the easing cycle is "close to finishing." The 23% decrease probability captures bets on further GDP softness (forecasts near 1.6-1.8%) and resilient U.S. demand spillover, while hike odds near zero underscore absent inflationary acceleration risks. Traders eye April CPI data and labor metrics ahead of resolution, as markets price in balanced monetary policy amid Mexico's 3% inflation target midpoint.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$8,137
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Decisão do Banco do México em maio" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sem mudanças" at 77%, followed by "Redução" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Decisão do Banco do México em maio" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Decisão do Banco do México em maio," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Decisão do Banco do México em maio" is "Sem mudanças" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Redução" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Decisão do Banco do México em maio" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.