Polymarket traders are pricing a 62% implied probability for Apple (AAPL) to close above $225 by March 31, buoyed by robust iPhone demand in China offsetting softer services growth reported in Q1 earnings, alongside a $110 billion stock buyback authorization signaling board confidence. Current shares trade at $223, just 0.9% shy of the strike, with Nasdaq momentum and cooling inflation data supporting tech valuations amid Fed rate cut expectations. Key risks include escalating U.S.-China tariffs and antitrust scrutiny, while upcoming WWDC previews on AI integrations could catalyze upside. Historical March closes show AAPL averaging 2.5% gains, aligning with trader consensus backed by $150 million in open interest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$282,906 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
98%
$230
88%
$240
78%
US$ 250
45%
$260
28%
$270
10%
$280
13%
$290
1%
US$ 300
1%
$310
1%
$320
1%
US$330
<1%
$282,906 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
98%
$230
88%
$240
78%
US$ 250
45%
$260
28%
$270
10%
$280
13%
$290
1%
US$ 300
1%
$310
1%
$320
1%
US$330
<1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a 62% implied probability for Apple (AAPL) to close above $225 by March 31, buoyed by robust iPhone demand in China offsetting softer services growth reported in Q1 earnings, alongside a $110 billion stock buyback authorization signaling board confidence. Current shares trade at $223, just 0.9% shy of the strike, with Nasdaq momentum and cooling inflation data supporting tech valuations amid Fed rate cut expectations. Key risks include escalating U.S.-China tariffs and antitrust scrutiny, while upcoming WWDC previews on AI integrations could catalyze upside. Historical March closes show AAPL averaging 2.5% gains, aligning with trader consensus backed by $150 million in open interest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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