Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title at 16.4% implied probability, bolstered by their dominant UEFA qualifiers and Euro 2024 triumph with stars like Yamal and Pedri in peak form, though midfield injury doubts linger for Merino and Ruiz. France (12.8%) and England (12.4%) trail closely after navigating tough qualification paths amid mounting injury crises—Mbappé's ankle sprain, Bellingham and Foden sidelined for England—yet recent friendlies like France's 2-1 win over Brazil signal resilience. Defending champions Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) face depth questions with Messi's age and Neymar's fitness woes, while the expanded 48-team format, finalized playoff results (DR Congo, Iraq advance), and competitive group draws keep the race tight, rewarding depth and momentum in the group stage and knockouts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 16.4%
França 12.6%
Inglaterra 12.4%
Argentina 9.4%
$452,524,671 Vol.
$452,524,671 Vol.

Espanha
16%

França
13%

Inglaterra
12%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

Japão
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Suíça
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

México
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Equipe AA
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Egito
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

Panamá
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 16.4%
França 12.6%
Inglaterra 12.4%
Argentina 9.4%
$452,524,671 Vol.
$452,524,671 Vol.

Espanha
16%

França
13%

Inglaterra
12%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

Japão
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Suíça
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

México
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Equipe AA
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Egito
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

Panamá
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title at 16.4% implied probability, bolstered by their dominant UEFA qualifiers and Euro 2024 triumph with stars like Yamal and Pedri in peak form, though midfield injury doubts linger for Merino and Ruiz. France (12.8%) and England (12.4%) trail closely after navigating tough qualification paths amid mounting injury crises—Mbappé's ankle sprain, Bellingham and Foden sidelined for England—yet recent friendlies like France's 2-1 win over Brazil signal resilience. Defending champions Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) face depth questions with Messi's age and Neymar's fitness woes, while the expanded 48-team format, finalized playoff results (DR Congo, Iraq advance), and competitive group draws keep the race tight, rewarding depth and momentum in the group stage and knockouts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions