Traders assign a 91.5% probability to NATO Article 5 not being invoked before 2027 because no armed attack on alliance territory has occurred or appears imminent. Ongoing conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions, have produced hybrid incidents and missile activity but remain contained without crossing the threshold for collective defense. NATO officials explicitly ruled out Article 5 consideration after a March 2026 ballistic missile incident involving Turkey, and alliance consultations continue to emphasize deterrence and diplomacy over escalation. This positioning aligns with the historical record of only one prior invocation and reflects market assessment that current diplomatic and military postures make a qualifying trigger unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.