Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for a global magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake by June 30, reflecting the rarity of megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year worldwide per USGS historical data—and the absence of any such event in 2026 to date amid routine seismic activity. Current USGS monitoring reveals no elevated precursors like unusual strain accumulation or foreshock swarms on major subduction zones, with the strongest recent quakes below M7.5. A powerful April event near Japan slightly raised Nankai Trough stress per JMA analysis, estimating just 1% near-term megaquake odds there, insufficient to alter global probabilities over the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time USGS data updates could shift sentiment, but baseline rates justify the market-implied 13.5% "Yes" chance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$64,962 Wol.
$64,962 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$64,962 Wol.
$64,962 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for a global magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake by June 30, reflecting the rarity of megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year worldwide per USGS historical data—and the absence of any such event in 2026 to date amid routine seismic activity. Current USGS monitoring reveals no elevated precursors like unusual strain accumulation or foreshock swarms on major subduction zones, with the strongest recent quakes below M7.5. A powerful April event near Japan slightly raised Nankai Trough stress per JMA analysis, estimating just 1% near-term megaquake odds there, insufficient to alter global probabilities over the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time USGS data updates could shift sentiment, but baseline rates justify the market-implied 13.5% "Yes" chance.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$64,962Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for a global magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake by June 30, reflecting the rarity of megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year worldwide per USGS historical data—and the absence of any such event in 2026 to date amid routine seismic activity. Current USGS monitoring reveals no elevated precursors like unusual strain accumulation or foreshock swarms on major subduction zones, with the strongest recent quakes below M7.5. A powerful April event near Japan slightly raised Nankai Trough stress per JMA analysis, estimating just 1% near-term megaquake odds there, insufficient to alter global probabilities over the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time USGS data updates could shift sentiment, but baseline rates justify the market-implied 13.5% "Yes" chance.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$64,962Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for a global magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake by June 30, reflecting the rarity of megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year worldwide per USGS historical data—and the absence of any such event in 2026 to date amid routine seismic activity. Current USGS monitoring reveals no elevated precursors like unusual strain accumulation or foreshock swarms on major subduction zones, with the strongest recent quakes below M7.5. A powerful April event near Japan slightly raised Nankai Trough stress per JMA analysis, estimating just 1% near-term megaquake odds there, insufficient to alter global probabilities over the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time USGS data updates could shift sentiment, but baseline rates justify the market-implied 13.5% "Yes" chance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania