Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30, driven by the absence of qualifying quakes in 2026 so far and steady global seismicity without anomalous strain buildup on major faults. USGS monitoring confirms the year's largest events as a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both below threshold and without aftershocks escalating to M8.0. While long-term risks persist, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% chance in 30 years per recent government estimates), short-term predictability remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. Traders await real-time USGS updates, with inherent uncertainty keeping Yes shares at 18.5% amid historical M8+ frequency of roughly one every 1-2 years.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$49,186 Wol.
$49,186 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$49,186 Wol.
$49,186 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30, driven by the absence of qualifying quakes in 2026 so far and steady global seismicity without anomalous strain buildup on major faults. USGS monitoring confirms the year's largest events as a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both below threshold and without aftershocks escalating to M8.0. While long-term risks persist, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% chance in 30 years per recent government estimates), short-term predictability remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. Traders await real-time USGS updates, with inherent uncertainty keeping Yes shares at 18.5% amid historical M8+ frequency of roughly one every 1-2 years.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$49,186Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30, driven by the absence of qualifying quakes in 2026 so far and steady global seismicity without anomalous strain buildup on major faults. USGS monitoring confirms the year's largest events as a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both below threshold and without aftershocks escalating to M8.0. While long-term risks persist, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% chance in 30 years per recent government estimates), short-term predictability remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. Traders await real-time USGS updates, with inherent uncertainty keeping Yes shares at 18.5% amid historical M8+ frequency of roughly one every 1-2 years.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$49,186Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30, driven by the absence of qualifying quakes in 2026 so far and steady global seismicity without anomalous strain buildup on major faults. USGS monitoring confirms the year's largest events as a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both below threshold and without aftershocks escalating to M8.0. While long-term risks persist, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% chance in 30 years per recent government estimates), short-term predictability remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. Traders await real-time USGS updates, with inherent uncertainty keeping Yes shares at 18.5% amid historical M8+ frequency of roughly one every 1-2 years.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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