Persistent gang violence, incomplete voter registration, funding shortfalls, and weak security arrangements continue to block preparations for Haiti's scheduled December 13, 2026 general elections, the first nationwide vote in a decade. Successive transitional governments and the Provisional Electoral Council have already shifted dates multiple times amid the same obstacles, producing the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Remaining barriers include limited territorial control by authorities and unresolved logistical requirements. Plausible developments that could still alter the outcome include rapid security gains through expanded international stabilization efforts, sudden resolution of financing gaps, or an unforeseen acceleration in electoral logistics, though all face significant practical hurdles given recent patterns.