Recent polling averages show the PP maintaining a steady 4–6 point lead over the PSOE ahead of the November 29 snap election, positioning the Socialists as the consensus second-place finisher. Traders have assigned the PSOE an 83.5% implied probability for that outcome, well ahead of the PP at 13% and smaller parties including Vox at 8% and Broad Front at 9%. This reflects the PSOE’s consistent second-place standing in surveys since the election call, despite its reduced vote share compared with 2023. The PP’s advantage has narrowed only marginally in the past month, while Vox has gained ground but remains projected behind the PSOE in seat forecasts. Late shifts in turnout among regional or progressive voters could still affect final placement.