Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an April 23 release for OpenAI's GPT-5.5—nicknamed "Spud"—at 74.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks confirming pre-training completion on March 24 at the Stargate facility using over 100,000 H100 GPUs, alongside internal benchmarks showing ~40% gains in coding, reasoning, and agent tasks over GPT-5.4. Recent X posts and reports, including Polymarket's April 18 alert projecting a "next week" rollout, have sharpened focus on mid-week timing typical of OpenAI launches, amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's selective Mythos and Opus 4.7 releases. While no official announcement exists, post-training refinements appear complete; traders eye potential delays from safety evals or regulatory hurdles before public API access.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGPT-5.5 released on...?
GPT-5.5 released on...?
April 23 75%
April 24 6.2%
No release by April 30 5.5%
April 30 4.1%
$140,411 Wol.
$140,411 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 18
<1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
2%
April 21
1%
April 22
4%
April 23
75%
April 24
6%
April 25
<1%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
2%
April 29
2%
April 30
4%
No release by April 30
6%
April 23 75%
April 24 6.2%
No release by April 30 5.5%
April 30 4.1%
$140,411 Wol.
$140,411 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 18
$2,130 Wol.
<1%
April 19
$2,892 Wol.
<1%
April 20
$2,481 Wol.
2%
April 21
$4,562 Wol.
1%
April 22
$6,263 Wol.
4%
April 23
$30,030 Wol.
75%
April 24
$3,177 Wol.
6%
April 25
$1,743 Wol.
<1%
April 26
$2,060 Wol.
1%
April 27
$2,524 Wol.
1%
April 28
$2,923 Wol.
2%
April 29
$2,763 Wol.
2%
April 30
$4,514 Wol.
4%
No release by April 30
$9,080 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an April 23 release for OpenAI's GPT-5.5—nicknamed "Spud"—at 74.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks confirming pre-training completion on March 24 at the Stargate facility using over 100,000 H100 GPUs, alongside internal benchmarks showing ~40% gains in coding, reasoning, and agent tasks over GPT-5.4. Recent X posts and reports, including Polymarket's April 18 alert projecting a "next week" rollout, have sharpened focus on mid-week timing typical of OpenAI launches, amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's selective Mythos and Opus 4.7 releases. While no official announcement exists, post-training refinements appear complete; traders eye potential delays from safety evals or regulatory hurdles before public API access.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$140,411Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Okno sporu
Ostateczny
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an April 23 release for OpenAI's GPT-5.5—nicknamed "Spud"—at 74.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks confirming pre-training completion on March 24 at the Stargate facility using over 100,000 H100 GPUs, alongside internal benchmarks showing ~40% gains in coding, reasoning, and agent tasks over GPT-5.4. Recent X posts and reports, including Polymarket's April 18 alert projecting a "next week" rollout, have sharpened focus on mid-week timing typical of OpenAI launches, amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's selective Mythos and Opus 4.7 releases. While no official announcement exists, post-training refinements appear complete; traders eye potential delays from safety evals or regulatory hurdles before public API access.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$140,411Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Okno sporu
Ostateczny
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an April 23 release for OpenAI's GPT-5.5—nicknamed "Spud"—at 74.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks confirming pre-training completion on March 24 at the Stargate facility using over 100,000 H100 GPUs, alongside internal benchmarks showing ~40% gains in coding, reasoning, and agent tasks over GPT-5.4. Recent X posts and reports, including Polymarket's April 18 alert projecting a "next week" rollout, have sharpened focus on mid-week timing typical of OpenAI launches, amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's selective Mythos and Opus 4.7 releases. While no official announcement exists, post-training refinements appear complete; traders eye potential delays from safety evals or regulatory hurdles before public API access.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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