Microsoft’s official launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the primary driver behind current market sentiment for the next MAI reasoning model. The 35-billion-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model, trained from scratch without third-party distillation on licensed enterprise data, reached public preview on Microsoft Foundry by mid-August and posted competitive results against Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks. Traders view the rapid rollout of the broader seven-model MAI family—including specialized code, image, and voice variants—as confirmation of Microsoft’s in-house capability push, reducing reliance on external labs. Key upcoming catalysts include further Foundry integrations, expanded context-window updates, and any enterprise pricing or API availability announcements that could signal follow-on releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
28%
December 31
54%
$489 Wol.
September 30
$188 Wol.
28%
December 31
$301 Wol.
54%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s official launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the primary driver behind current market sentiment for the next MAI reasoning model. The 35-billion-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model, trained from scratch without third-party distillation on licensed enterprise data, reached public preview on Microsoft Foundry by mid-August and posted competitive results against Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks. Traders view the rapid rollout of the broader seven-model MAI family—including specialized code, image, and voice variants—as confirmation of Microsoft’s in-house capability push, reducing reliance on external labs. Key upcoming catalysts include further Foundry integrations, expanded context-window updates, and any enterprise pricing or API availability announcements that could signal follow-on releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s official launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the primary driver behind current market sentiment for the next MAI reasoning model. The 35-billion-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model, trained from scratch without third-party distillation on licensed enterprise data, reached public preview on Microsoft Foundry by mid-August and posted competitive results against Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks. Traders view the rapid rollout of the broader seven-model MAI family—including specialized code, image, and voice variants—as confirmation of Microsoft’s in-house capability push, reducing reliance on external labs. Key upcoming catalysts include further Foundry integrations, expanded context-window updates, and any enterprise pricing or API availability announcements that could signal follow-on releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s official launch of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June established the primary driver behind current market sentiment for the next MAI reasoning model. The 35-billion-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model, trained from scratch without third-party distillation on licensed enterprise data, reached public preview on Microsoft Foundry by mid-August and posted competitive results against Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks. Traders view the rapid rollout of the broader seven-model MAI family—including specialized code, image, and voice variants—as confirmation of Microsoft’s in-house capability push, reducing reliance on external labs. Key upcoming catalysts include further Foundry integrations, expanded context-window updates, and any enterprise pricing or API availability announcements that could signal follow-on releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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