Trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by a new CNN poll showing Democrats leading Republicans by 6 points on the generic congressional ballot—matching 2018 levels that preceded major House gains—and recent Democratic upsets in special elections, including a conservative Georgia district, Wisconsin mayoral race, and Southern state legislative contests. A surge in House Republican retirements over the past week underscores institutional frustration within narrow GOP majorities under President Trump, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the incumbent party. Primaries starting soon and sustained polling edges in battlegrounds could further shape paths to House control and Senate competitiveness.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$35,929 Wol.
$35,929 Wol.
Nov 30, 2026
$35,929 Wol.
$35,929 Wol.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by a new CNN poll showing Democrats leading Republicans by 6 points on the generic congressional ballot—matching 2018 levels that preceded major House gains—and recent Democratic upsets in special elections, including a conservative Georgia district, Wisconsin mayoral race, and Southern state legislative contests. A surge in House Republican retirements over the past week underscores institutional frustration within narrow GOP majorities under President Trump, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the incumbent party. Primaries starting soon and sustained polling edges in battlegrounds could further shape paths to House control and Senate competitiveness.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$35,929Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by a new CNN poll showing Democrats leading Republicans by 6 points on the generic congressional ballot—matching 2018 levels that preceded major House gains—and recent Democratic upsets in special elections, including a conservative Georgia district, Wisconsin mayoral race, and Southern state legislative contests. A surge in House Republican retirements over the past week underscores institutional frustration within narrow GOP majorities under President Trump, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the incumbent party. Primaries starting soon and sustained polling edges in battlegrounds could further shape paths to House control and Senate competitiveness.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Wolumen
$35,929Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by a new CNN poll showing Democrats leading Republicans by 6 points on the generic congressional ballot—matching 2018 levels that preceded major House gains—and recent Democratic upsets in special elections, including a conservative Georgia district, Wisconsin mayoral race, and Southern state legislative contests. A surge in House Republican retirements over the past week underscores institutional frustration within narrow GOP majorities under President Trump, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the incumbent party. Primaries starting soon and sustained polling edges in battlegrounds could further shape paths to House control and Senate competitiveness.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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