Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats post-2026 midterms—atop persistent generic ballot leads averaging D+6 nationally per Nate Silver's May 8 update, up from D+5.4 pre-April amid latest surveys like RMG Research (D+9, May 4–6) and YouGov (D+3, May 1–4). President Trump's approval has sunk to 34–41% in recent polls, fueled by unpopular Iran military action viewed as a failure by 53% (Emerson, April) and economic pessimism on inflation. Historical patterns show the president's party losing House control in nine of the last 10 midterms under similar conditions, though GOP-favorable redistricting rulings in Virginia and Louisiana pose offsets ahead of summer primaries.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$41,488 Wol.
$41,488 Wol.
Nov 30, 2026
$41,488 Wol.
$41,488 Wol.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 79% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats post-2026 midterms—atop persistent generic ballot leads averaging D+6 nationally per Nate Silver's May 8 update, up from D+5.4 pre-April amid latest surveys like RMG Research (D+9, May 4–6) and YouGov (D+3, May 1–4). President Trump's approval has sunk to 34–41% in recent polls, fueled by unpopular Iran military action viewed as a failure by 53% (Emerson, April) and economic pessimism on inflation. Historical patterns show the president's party losing House control in nine of the last 10 midterms under similar conditions, though GOP-favorable redistricting rulings in Virginia and Louisiana pose offsets ahead of summer primaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$41,488Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 79% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats post-2026 midterms—atop persistent generic ballot leads averaging D+6 nationally per Nate Silver's May 8 update, up from D+5.4 pre-April amid latest surveys like RMG Research (D+9, May 4–6) and YouGov (D+3, May 1–4). President Trump's approval has sunk to 34–41% in recent polls, fueled by unpopular Iran military action viewed as a failure by 53% (Emerson, April) and economic pessimism on inflation. Historical patterns show the president's party losing House control in nine of the last 10 midterms under similar conditions, though GOP-favorable redistricting rulings in Virginia and Louisiana pose offsets ahead of summer primaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Wolumen
$41,488Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats post-2026 midterms—atop persistent generic ballot leads averaging D+6 nationally per Nate Silver's May 8 update, up from D+5.4 pre-April amid latest surveys like RMG Research (D+9, May 4–6) and YouGov (D+3, May 1–4). President Trump's approval has sunk to 34–41% in recent polls, fueled by unpopular Iran military action viewed as a failure by 53% (Emerson, April) and economic pessimism on inflation. Historical patterns show the president's party losing House control in nine of the last 10 midterms under similar conditions, though GOP-favorable redistricting rulings in Virginia and Louisiana pose offsets ahead of summer primaries.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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