Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race under ranked-choice voting because a crowded Republican primary left three GOP candidates—Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor—splitting the conservative vote in the November general election. Recent October polls, including Alaska Survey Research and New York Times/Siena surveys, show the Democrat receiving the largest share of first preferences and prevailing after RCV reallocations, often 54-46 or better against Wilson. Kreiss-Tomkins has also raised substantially more than the combined Republican field since the August primary, while GOP efforts to consolidate rankings have not yet closed the gap. Wilson remains the strongest Republican but trails amid internal party criticism and lower name recognition outside her base. These dynamics explain the current trader consensus favoring the Democrat.