Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$14,313 거래량
$14,313 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$14,313 거래량
$14,313 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$14,313종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
거래량
$14,313종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문