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미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?

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미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?

$529,033,417 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 Vol.

Polymarket

12월 31일

$19,193 Vol.

아니오

1월 11일

$3,035,454 Vol.

아니오

1월 12일

$1,743,135 Vol.

아니오

1월 13일

$3,335,543 Vol.

아니오

1월 14일

$13,619,742 Vol.

아니오

1월 15일

$7,975,002 Vol.

아니오

1월 16일

$8,491,723 Vol.

아니오

1월 17일

$3,823,998 Vol.

아니오

1월 18일

$5,468,913 Vol.

아니오

1월 23일

$12,296,618 Vol.

아니오

1월 24일

$2,924,662 Vol.

아니오

1월 25일

$2,703,692 Vol.

아니오

1월 26일

$6,908,538 Vol.

아니오

1월 27일

$2,498,074 Vol.

아니오

1월 28일

$1,950,685 Vol.

아니오

1월 29일

$3,064,539 Vol.

아니오

1월 30일

$3,469,659 Vol.

아니오

1월 31일

$41,754,060 Vol.

아니오

2월 1일

$6,629,658 Vol.

아니오

2월 2일

$4,246,232 Vol.

아니오

2월 3일

$3,763,165 Vol.

아니오

2월 4일

$3,844,340 Vol.

아니오

2월 5일

$4,461,531 Vol.

아니오

2월 6일

$9,750,256 Vol.

아니오

2월 7일

$3,615,405 Vol.

아니오

2월 8일

$3,821,142 Vol.

아니오

2월 9일

$17,561,112 Vol.

아니오

2월 10일

$10,496,937 Vol.

아니오

2월 11일

$4,493,524 Vol.

아니오

2월 12일

$4,187,886 Vol.

아니오

2월 13일

$15,146,244 Vol.

아니오

2월 14일

$4,140,716 Vol.

아니오

2월 15일

$4,542,348 Vol.

아니오

2월 16일

$4,855,990 Vol.

아니오

2월 17일

$5,599,406 Vol.

아니오

2월 18일

$7,408,763 Vol.

아니오

2월 19일

$8,798,853 Vol.

아니오

2월 20일

$18,810,054 Vol.

아니오

2월 21일

$12,250,013 Vol.

아니오

2월 22일

$12,611,170 Vol.

아니오

2월 23일

$14,022,419 Vol.

아니오

2월 24일

$16,942,274 Vol.

아니오

2월 25일

$10,517,389 Vol.

아니오

2월 26일

$14,489,547 Vol.

아니오

2월 27일

$25,087,849 Vol.

아니오

2월 28일

$89,652,867 Vol.

3월 1일

$8,093,539 Vol.

3월 2일

$3,812,922 Vol.

3월 3일

$1,917,863 Vol.

3월 4일

$1,376,485 Vol.

3월 5일

$1,565,799 Vol.

3월 6일

$1,008,204 Vol.

3월 7일

$2,470,666 Vol.

3월 8일

$539,454 Vol.

3월 9일

$379,810 Vol.

3월 10일

$269,970 Vol.

3월 11일

$190,483 Vol.

3월 12일

$197,658 Vol.

3월 13일

$283,107 Vol.

3월 14일

$357,946 Vol.

3월 15일

$6,642,886 Vol.

3월 31일

$22,213,247 Vol.

6월 30일

$9,193,272 Vol.

12월 31일

$1,689,785 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
볼륨
$529,033,417
종료일
Jun 30, 2026
생성일
Dec 22, 2025, 11:29 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

제안된 결과: 아니오

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최종 결과: 아니오

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Frequently Asked Questions

"미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2월 28일" at 100%, followed by "3월 1일" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?" has generated $529 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?" is "2월 28일" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3월 1일" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "미국이 이란을 공격하는데…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.