Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where 21 hours of talks ended without agreement over stark differences on nuclear enrichment limits, timelines for suspending activity—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's shorter proposals—and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, has solidified trader consensus against a deal by April 30. President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent concessions, coupled with Iran's rejections of US claims on uranium surrender and renewed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as of April 18, underscore persistent impasse amid a fragile ceasefire nearing its April 21 expiration. Mediators eye a second round soon, but with core demands unmet and only 11 days left, implied probabilities reflect skepticism on timely diplomacy.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,569,363 거래량
$1,569,363 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$1,569,363 거래량
$1,569,363 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where 21 hours of talks ended without agreement over stark differences on nuclear enrichment limits, timelines for suspending activity—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's shorter proposals—and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, has solidified trader consensus against a deal by April 30. President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent concessions, coupled with Iran's rejections of US claims on uranium surrender and renewed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as of April 18, underscore persistent impasse amid a fragile ceasefire nearing its April 21 expiration. Mediators eye a second round soon, but with core demands unmet and only 11 days left, implied probabilities reflect skepticism on timely diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
거래량
$1,569,363종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where 21 hours of talks ended without agreement over stark differences on nuclear enrichment limits, timelines for suspending activity—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's shorter proposals—and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, has solidified trader consensus against a deal by April 30. President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent concessions, coupled with Iran's rejections of US claims on uranium surrender and renewed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as of April 18, underscore persistent impasse amid a fragile ceasefire nearing its April 21 expiration. Mediators eye a second round soon, but with core demands unmet and only 11 days left, implied probabilities reflect skepticism on timely diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$1,569,363종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where 21 hours of talks ended without agreement over stark differences on nuclear enrichment limits, timelines for suspending activity—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's shorter proposals—and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, has solidified trader consensus against a deal by April 30. President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent concessions, coupled with Iran's rejections of US claims on uranium surrender and renewed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as of April 18, underscore persistent impasse amid a fragile ceasefire nearing its April 21 expiration. Mediators eye a second round soon, but with core demands unmet and only 11 days left, implied probabilities reflect skepticism on timely diplomacy.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문