Incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the TN-09 Democratic primary, reflecting his longstanding name recognition, history of securing federal funding for Memphis infrastructure and housing, and typical incumbency advantages in closed primaries despite recent polls showing a near-tie. A March Justice Democrats survey of likely voters had Cohen at 45% to Justin Pearson's 44%, while Data for Progress found a virtual deadlock, underscoring a competitive generational contest between the 76-year-old Cohen and 31-year-old Pearson, a Black state lawmaker known from the "Tennessee Three" protests. Progressive endorsements for Pearson from Indivisible Memphis and others in April have narrowed the gap, but Cohen bolstered local ties with a state capitol address on April 10; the August 6 primary looms as turnout among key Black voting blocs could tip the balance. DeVante Hill trails at 4.9% as a lesser-known activist.