Ongoing tensions in the 2026 Iran war, including U.S. naval operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian proposals for negotiations delivered via intermediaries, have created uncertainty over whether major escalation or de-escalation will occur before month's end. Israeli strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, combined with a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, add further variables, while a declared Ebola public health emergency and domestic U.S. primaries introduce additional potential catalysts. Traders view the balance near even because these developments could resolve quietly or intensify rapidly through diplomatic breakthroughs, renewed attacks, or policy shifts, with resolution hinging on verifiable major events by May 31.