Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 63% for no trigger events occurring by May 31, driven by recent de-escalation signals in US-Iran tensions, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement on calmer Strait of Hormuz management amid ongoing US blockade and stalled ceasefire talks. Senate rejection of Democrats' sixth Iran war powers resolution yesterday, with the 60-day hostilities clock reportedly paused, reduces near-term risks of permanent peace deals or leadership changes. WTI crude remains stable near $95, far below the $150 threshold, while prospects for US military action against Cuba, alien confirmations, or Russian invasion of a NATO country stay remote absent new catalysts. No major scheduled votes, summits, or primaries loom in the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.05.31
신규
신규
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 63% for no trigger events occurring by May 31, driven by recent de-escalation signals in US-Iran tensions, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement on calmer Strait of Hormuz management amid ongoing US blockade and stalled ceasefire talks. Senate rejection of Democrats' sixth Iran war powers resolution yesterday, with the 60-day hostilities clock reportedly paused, reduces near-term risks of permanent peace deals or leadership changes. WTI crude remains stable near $95, far below the $150 threshold, while prospects for US military action against Cuba, alien confirmations, or Russian invasion of a NATO country stay remote absent new catalysts. No major scheduled votes, summits, or primaries loom in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
거래량
$1,859종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 63% for no trigger events occurring by May 31, driven by recent de-escalation signals in US-Iran tensions, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement on calmer Strait of Hormuz management amid ongoing US blockade and stalled ceasefire talks. Senate rejection of Democrats' sixth Iran war powers resolution yesterday, with the 60-day hostilities clock reportedly paused, reduces near-term risks of permanent peace deals or leadership changes. WTI crude remains stable near $95, far below the $150 threshold, while prospects for US military action against Cuba, alien confirmations, or Russian invasion of a NATO country stay remote absent new catalysts. No major scheduled votes, summits, or primaries loom in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
거래량
$1,859종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 63% for no trigger events occurring by May 31, driven by recent de-escalation signals in US-Iran tensions, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement on calmer Strait of Hormuz management amid ongoing US blockade and stalled ceasefire talks. Senate rejection of Democrats' sixth Iran war powers resolution yesterday, with the 60-day hostilities clock reportedly paused, reduces near-term risks of permanent peace deals or leadership changes. WTI crude remains stable near $95, far below the $150 threshold, while prospects for US military action against Cuba, alien confirmations, or Russian invasion of a NATO country stay remote absent new catalysts. No major scheduled votes, summits, or primaries loom in the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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