The strong Democratic tilt of New Mexico’s 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández’s unopposed June 2 primary victory, underpins traders’ 89.5% probability for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles limit Republican opportunities. Martin Ruben Zamora’s unopposed Republican primary has produced a standard challenger with limited statewide profile or fundraising visibility. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since primaries concluded. Upcoming factors that could influence the race remain limited to standard midterm turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
11%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$378 거래량
90%
Republican Party
$61 거래량
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of New Mexico’s 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández’s unopposed June 2 primary victory, underpins traders’ 89.5% probability for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles limit Republican opportunities. Martin Ruben Zamora’s unopposed Republican primary has produced a standard challenger with limited statewide profile or fundraising visibility. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since primaries concluded. Upcoming factors that could influence the race remain limited to standard midterm turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$439종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of New Mexico’s 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández’s unopposed June 2 primary victory, underpins traders’ 89.5% probability for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles limit Republican opportunities. Martin Ruben Zamora’s unopposed Republican primary has produced a standard challenger with limited statewide profile or fundraising visibility. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since primaries concluded. Upcoming factors that could influence the race remain limited to standard midterm turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$439종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic tilt of New Mexico’s 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández’s unopposed June 2 primary victory, underpins traders’ 89.5% probability for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles limit Republican opportunities. Martin Ruben Zamora’s unopposed Republican primary has produced a standard challenger with limited statewide profile or fundraising visibility. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since primaries concluded. Upcoming factors that could influence the race remain limited to standard midterm turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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