Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,169 거래량
$10,169 거래량
2026.08.04
Wesley Bell
66%
Cori Bush
34%
$10,169 거래량
$10,169 거래량
2026.08.04
Wesley Bell
$5,395 거래량
66%
Cori Bush
$4,773 거래량
34%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
거래량
$10,169종료일
2026.08.04마켓 개설일
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$10,169종료일
2026.08.04마켓 개설일
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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