Trader consensus prices an 84.5% implied probability on "No" for Rep. Eric Swalwell facing formal charges by May 31, driven by the absence of indictments despite escalating probes over the past week. Multiple women recently accused the former California congressman of sexual assault and misconduct, prompting his abrupt resignation from Congress on April 13, a House Ethics Committee investigation announced April 13, and a DOJ probe into the allegations confirmed April 16. Referrals for potential mortgage fraud and renewed scrutiny of past ties to suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang have surfaced, but no grand jury indictments or criminal filings have materialized. With just six weeks remaining, traders anticipate procedural delays typical in high-profile cases involving evidence review and prosecutorial review.