Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at a New York federal facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and unsealing of a superseding indictment on narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges—offenses carrying potential life sentences that anchor trader consensus behind 60+ years at 34.5%. A federal judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges in late March, sustaining prosecution momentum, while a recent April 25 ruling permitting Venezuela's acting government under Delcy Rodríguez to fund his legal team bolsters his challenge, lifting no-prison-time odds to 23.5%. Differentiators hinge on trial evidence strength versus possible plea bargains yielding 20–40 years (19.7%); consolidation toward longer sentences could follow damaging witness testimony, while acquittal risks or procedural delays favor shorter or zero time amid an uncertain timeline to verdict by year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트60+ 35%
징역형 없음 24%
20~40 19.6%
40~60 13%
$505,451 거래량
$505,451 거래량
2027.12.31
징역형 없음
24%
20년 미만
5%
20~40
21%
40~60
13%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
징역형 없음 24%
20~40 19.6%
40~60 13%
$505,451 거래량
$505,451 거래량
2027.12.31
징역형 없음
$373,171 거래량
24%
20년 미만
$36,957 거래량
5%
20~40
$47,764 거래량
21%
40~60
$15,608 거래량
13%
60+
$31,951 거래량
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at a New York federal facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and unsealing of a superseding indictment on narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges—offenses carrying potential life sentences that anchor trader consensus behind 60+ years at 34.5%. A federal judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges in late March, sustaining prosecution momentum, while a recent April 25 ruling permitting Venezuela's acting government under Delcy Rodríguez to fund his legal team bolsters his challenge, lifting no-prison-time odds to 23.5%. Differentiators hinge on trial evidence strength versus possible plea bargains yielding 20–40 years (19.7%); consolidation toward longer sentences could follow damaging witness testimony, while acquittal risks or procedural delays favor shorter or zero time amid an uncertain timeline to verdict by year-end.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
거래량
$505,451종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at a New York federal facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and unsealing of a superseding indictment on narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges—offenses carrying potential life sentences that anchor trader consensus behind 60+ years at 34.5%. A federal judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges in late March, sustaining prosecution momentum, while a recent April 25 ruling permitting Venezuela's acting government under Delcy Rodríguez to fund his legal team bolsters his challenge, lifting no-prison-time odds to 23.5%. Differentiators hinge on trial evidence strength versus possible plea bargains yielding 20–40 years (19.7%); consolidation toward longer sentences could follow damaging witness testimony, while acquittal risks or procedural delays favor shorter or zero time amid an uncertain timeline to verdict by year-end.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$505,451종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at a New York federal facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and unsealing of a superseding indictment on narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges—offenses carrying potential life sentences that anchor trader consensus behind 60+ years at 34.5%. A federal judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges in late March, sustaining prosecution momentum, while a recent April 25 ruling permitting Venezuela's acting government under Delcy Rodríguez to fund his legal team bolsters his challenge, lifting no-prison-time odds to 23.5%. Differentiators hinge on trial evidence strength versus possible plea bargains yielding 20–40 years (19.7%); consolidation toward longer sentences could follow damaging witness testimony, while acquittal risks or procedural delays favor shorter or zero time amid an uncertain timeline to verdict by year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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